基于OD反推的客运专线客流预测方法研究  

Research on Passenger Flow Forecasting Method of Passenger Line Based on OD Estimation

作　　者：葛永[1] 叶建勇[2] 李强[3] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064 [2]浙江省发展规划研究院,浙江杭州310012 [3]陕西省交通运输厅,陕西西安710075

出　　处：《洛阳理工学院学报（自然科学版）》2017年第2期31-34,共4页Journal of Luoyang Institute of Science and Technology：Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：为有效地分析铁路客运专线客流需求,针对传统的4阶段预测中基年OD数据较难获取的问题,提出了基于OD反推技术的客流预测方法,并将该方法与4阶段预测模型相结合用于分析客流需求。以某区域铁路客运专线为例,结合TransCAD预测软件,对模型进行了验证分析,结果表明该方法科学有效。In order to analyze the passenger demand of railway passenger line, in the paper a method of passenger flow forecasting based on OD matrix estimation technique are put forward. It is used to solve the problem of the traditional four stage prediction based on OD data. By combining the method with the four stage prediction model, the demand of passenger flow is analyzed. Taking the passenger line as an example, transCAD software is employed to verify the model in the passenger dedicated line in a certain area. Results show that the method is scientific and effective.

关 键 词：客流预测 OD反推 客运专线 4阶段模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]