考虑预估期间林木枯死及采伐影响的杉木单木胸高断面积生长模型研究  

Individual-tree Basal Area Growth Model for Cunninghamia lanceolata with the Consideration of Thinning and Tree Mortality in the Prediction Interval

作　　者：王建军[1] 曾伟生[2] 孟京辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学省部共建森林培育与保护教育部重点实验室,北京100083 [2]国家林业局林业调查规划设计院,北京100714

出　　处：《西北林学院学报》2017年第3期181-185,共5页Journal of Northwest Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(31300532)

摘　　要：单木生长模型以单木为模拟对象,模拟单株林木在一定立地条件下的生长规律,其良好的精度为森林经营措施的制定提供了决策依据。基于两期福建省三明市杉木人工林一类调查数据,以林木生长量为因变量,林木大小、立地条件、林木竞争指数以及基于所有保留木相同的3个竞争指数为自变量,运用R语言,采用多元线性逐步回归,构建杉木胸高断面积生长模型。结果表明,考虑枯死及采伐效应的基于保留木所构建的竞争指数在模型中影响显著,说明预估期间林木采伐及枯死对林木生长的影响显著。在单木生长模型构建中,有必要考虑预估期间林木采伐及枯死效应,从而使模型更具合理性。所做模型还可用来模拟不同采伐强度及不同采伐林木下林分的生长动态,为合理制定采伐措施提供决策依据。Individual tree growth model was established by taking single tree as the basic modeling unit to predict the scenario of tree growth under certain site conditions, and thereby to provide supportive informa- tion for formulating forest management regimes. Data were collected from the two-period national forest in- ventory in Sanming,Fujian Province. The growth of basal area could be described as a linear function of tree size, site condition and competition. Residual trees were also used to produce the similar competition indices above. Finally, stepwise multiple linear regressions were performed to produce the individual basal area growth model for Cunninghamia lanceolata by R language. The competition index calculated using the residual trees were also statistically significant in the predictive models which indicated that the effect of logging and tree mortality on tree growth was significant. We concluded that it was necessary to consider the effect of logging and tree mortality on tree growth in developing the predictive models, which made models more reasonable. In addition,our predictive model would provide a potential ability to model differ- ent thinning regimes such as the thinning intensity and hence to support the decision making of rational harvesting.

关 键 词：单木生长模型 林木枯死及采伐 多元线性逐步回归 竞争指数 

分 类 号：S758.55[农业科学—森林经理学]