2012年以来阿根廷宏观经济问题与政策分析  

Analysis on Argentina's Macro-economic Problem and Policies Since 2012

作　　者：朱晓金[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京第二外国语学院西欧语学院 [2]中国社会科学院拉美系

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2017年第2期77-91,156-157,共15页Journal of Latin American Studies

摘　　要：2003—2011年,得益于国际大宗商品繁荣周期,阿根廷经济实现了高增长,但从2012年年初开始,受全球经济"二次探底"的影响,阿根廷的外汇市场和金融部门剧烈波动,并传导至生产部门,宏观经济形势迅速恶化。克里斯蒂娜政府第二任期内采取了一系列措施应对经济困难,但截至2015年大选前,外部需求限制及经济结构内部失衡使阿根廷财政赤字突破安全警戒线,货币政策几近失效。2015年12月,中右翼"变革"联盟领袖马克里赢得大选,开启经济自由化改革,积极融入国际市场,转变近年来"进口替代"的发展模式。马克里政府改革一年来总体效果喜忧参半,而长期以来掣肘阿根廷经济发展的外债负担、经济结构失衡及国内政治因素没有得到根本性改变。本文从2012年以来阿根廷的经济形势和政策特点入手,分析阿根廷经济问题背后的深层次矛盾,结合当前内外部条件对马克里经济改革前景作出展望。From 2003 to 2011,Argentina witnessed high economic growth.Since the beginning of 2012,influenced by gloomy global economy,Argentina’s foreign exchange market and financial sector suffered dramatic fluctuation,which rapidly transmitted to industrial sectors and resulted in deterioration of macro economy.The Cristina Fernández Kichner administration took a series of measures to cope with financial difficulties,however,the stagnant external demand and internal imbalance of economic structure caused the rocketing of fiscal deficit,yielding government’s monetary policies nearly ineffective.Since December 2015,the newly elected right-wing president Mauricio Macri initiated a reform of marketization and liberalization,which received positive evaluation from IMF.However,the new government still faces the deep-rooted barriers,i.e.,foreign debt,imbalanced economic structure and domestic political factors.This paper illustrated Argentina’s economic situation and policy characteristics since 2012,analyzed the fundamental problems hindering Argentina’s economic development as well as the prospect of Macri administration’s reform on the basis of current internal and external conditions.

关 键 词：阿根廷经济 外汇管制 公关债务 贸易保护 货币贬值 结构改革 货币政策 财政扩张 

分 类 号：F123[经济管理—世界经济]