内生增长、税率结构与中国居民消费  

Endogenous growth,tax rate structure and China's private consumption

作　　者：贺俊[1] 刘亮亮[1] 张玉娟[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,安徽合肥230026 [2]安徽建筑大学管理学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《中国科学技术大学学报》2017年第3期236-243,共8页JUSTC

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71573240)资助

摘　　要：扩展了Milesi-Ferretti和Roubini的理论模型,在其基础上将资本收入税率、劳动收入税率、消费支出税率嵌入到内生增长模型中,研究了税率结构与居民消费之间的动态关系,通过Hamilton函数法得到了消费增长率与各参数的显式关系,并且通过数值模拟得到了税率结构与消费增长率的关系.基于中国2002~2013年31个省的面板数据,考察了税率结构对居民消费的影响,经验研究发现:劳动收入税率对居民消费有显著的正向影响,资本收入税率、消费支出税率对居民消费有显著的负向影响,即劳动收入税率挤入居民消费,资本收入税率、消费支出税率均挤出居民消费.Models of Milesi Ferretti and Roubini were expanded, and the dynamic relationship between the tax rate on capital income, labor income, consumption and private consumption which are embedded into endogenous growth model was studied, explicit relationships between consumption growth rate and various parameters were obtained by the Hamilton function, and relationship between tax rate structure and consumption growth rate were obtained by numerical simulation. The empirical study based on the Chinese provincial panel data from 2002 to 2013 suggest that labor income tax rate had a significant positive effect on household consumption; capital income tax, consumption tax rate has a significant negative effect on consumption, namely labor income tax rate is crowding in private consumption, while, capital income tax, consumption tax rate are crowding out of private consumption.

关 键 词：税率结构 内生增长模型 居民消费 数值模拟 

分 类 号：F810.2[经济管理—财政学]