Modeling and analyzing the impact of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics over Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa  

作　　者：Gbenga J. Abiodun Peter Witbooi Kazeem O. Okosun 

机构地区：[1]Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of the Western Cape, Private Bag X17 Bellville 7535, Republic of South Africa [2]Department of Mathematics Vaal University of Technology, Private Bag X021 Vanderbijlpark, Andries Potgieter Blvrd-1900 Republic of South Africa

出　　处：《International Journal of Biomathematics》2017年第4期211-233,共23页生物数学学报（英文版）

摘　　要：Malaria parasites are strongly dependent on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; for this reason, mosquito population dynamics are a crucial determinant of malaria risk. However, temperature and rainfall play a significant role in both aquatic and adult stages of the Anopheles. Consequently, it is important to understand the bio- logy of malaria vector mosquitoes in the study of malaria transmission. In this study, we develop a climate-based, ordinary-differential-equation model to analyze how rain- fall and temperature determine mosquito population size. In the model, we consider in detail the influence of ambient temperature on gonotrophic and sporogonic cycles over Amajuba District, Kwazulu-Natal Province, South Africa. In particular, we further use the model to simulate the spatial distribution of the mosquito biting rate over the study region. Our results reflect high seasonality of the population of An. gambiae over the region and also demonstrate the influence of climatic factors on the mosquito population dynamics.

关 键 词：Anopheles mosquito CLIMATE basic reproduction number. 

分 类 号：G[文化科学]