土地政策、供地结构与房价  

Land Policy,Land Supply Structure and Housing Prices

作　　者：张莉[1] 年永威 皮嘉勇 周越[3] Li Zhang Yongwei Nian Jiayong Pi Yue Zhou(International School of Business and Finance, Sun Yat sen University HSBC Business School, Peking University School of Economics, Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际金融学院 [2]北京大学汇丰商学院 [3]复旦大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济学报》2017年第1期91-118,共28页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(13CJY031);国家自然科学基金重点课题项目(71231008);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71373290);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目资助

摘　　要：在现有的土地制度下,地方政府垄断当地一级市场的土地供给,配置土地资源成为政府实现特定政策目标的手段。中国城市土地供给中工业用地偏高而商住用地偏低,明显不同于其他国家。本文在理论层面构建模型表明,这是在现有土地政策下,地方政府面临来自工业用地和商住用地需求方的巨大差异时的策略性选择,我们分析了政府的供地策略及其对房价造成的影响;在实证层面,本文首次采用地级市的分用地类型的供地数据证实了这种供地结构的扭曲将导致房价上升。进一步地,我们发现在东部地区的影响高于全国层面,中西部地区影响较为微弱,原因在于东部地区面临更紧的供地约束。本文的工作为理解房价的上涨以及中央供地政策的实际效果提供了一个新的视角。Under existing land system, local governments can achieve special policy objectives through primary land market monopoly and land resource allocation. Unlike foreign cities, Chinese cities maintain a relatively higher supply of industrial lands and lower supply of commercial and residential lands. We construct a model to demonstrate this is a tactical choice for local governments facing very different demands from the two kinds of land markets, and we also study the land supply tactic and its effect on housing prices. Employing prefecture-level data containing different types of land supply, we empirically show that the distorted land supply structure will boost housing prices. Moreover, we find that the effect is greater in the eastern region and weaker in the central and western regions, as the eastern region faces a tighter restriction in land supply. Our work sheds some light on the housing boom in China and the actual effect of the central government＇s land supply policy.

关 键 词：土地政策 供地结构 房价 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]