我国工资超劳动生产率增长背后的故事——基于省份面板模型的经验分析  

The Story Behind the Wage Growth over Productivity Growth:An empirical research based on provincial panel model

作　　者：吕光明[1] 李莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学统计学院,北京100875

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第3期83-98,共16页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"我国居民收入分配份额的统计测算与提升路径研究"(13ATJ005)

摘　　要：近十多年来,我国实际工资增长率持续超过劳动生产率增长率。这种现象不仅和我国低劳动力成本优势的历史情况不符,也和经典的新古典理论相悖,值得深入研究。为此,本文首先纳入相对生产率、劳动力供给、劳动力转移、投资规模占比与投资结构三类五大结构因素,搭建工资与劳动生产率的非一致性变动分析框架,然后采集1998—2014年我国31个省份数据构建省份面板模型,从全国和地区两个层面定量揭示工资超劳动生产率增长背后的结构诱因及其驱动机理。研究发现:(1)从全国层面看,五大结构因素引入模型后,工资对劳动生产率的弹性下降40%以上,且每一结构因素均显著驱动工资超增长,但在趋势表现上有很大差异。(2)从地区层面看,劳动生产率水平越高的地区,结构因素对工资超增长的驱动作用越强。东部地区工资超增长的结构诱因是相对生产率的提高、劳动力供给和农村剩余劳动力的减少,中部地区的结构诱因是投资规模占比扩大,而西部地区的工资增长则较少受结构因素驱动。上述结论意味着:我国应在劳动生产率增长的基础上,充分挖掘和借助结构诱因促使劳动者工资合理增长,从而更好地实现共享发展。The real wage growth rate of China has been continuing to exceed the productivity growth rate in the last dec ade. This phenomenon has not only failed to match the history of China＇s labor cost advantage, but also is contrary to the new classical theory that deserves further study. The paper introduces three categories of five structural factors, that is, rel ative productivity, labor supply, labor transfer, the percentage of investment scale and investment structure, to build up an analytical framework about the inconsistent growth of wage and productivity. Based on the annual data of 31 provinces from 1998 to 2014, it constructs panel empirical models to quantitatively reveal the structural reasons and driving mechanisms of the phenomenon that the wage growth rate is larger than the labor productivity growth rate from the national and regional levels. The results are as follows. First, at the national level, after the introduction of the five structural factors, the elas- ticity of wage decreases more than 40 % and every factor drives wage to increase more than productivity significantly;but the trends are rahter different. Second, in different regions, the effect of structural {actors is stronger if the productivity is high er. The main structural factors in the east area is the improvement of relative productivity and the reduction of labor supply and rural surplus labor force;the main structural factors in the central region is the enlargement of the percentage of invest ment scale;the growth of wage in the west area is less driven by structural factors. The above conclusions suggest that China should fully explore and induce structural changes to promote reasonable wage growth and realize the concept of sharing-de- velopment better.

关 键 词：工资 劳动生产率 结构诱因 省份面板模型 

分 类 号：F244.2[经济管理—劳动经济]