一种可能的地震前兆及其应用问题的讨论  

A possible earthquake precursor and discussions on the problems of its application

作　　者：尹志强[1] 王博[1] 田立丽[1] 王红旗[1] 韩延本[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家天文台,北京100012

出　　处：《科学通报》2017年第14期1439-1445,共7页Chinese Science Bulletin

摘　　要：40年前的1976年7月28日,一个7.8级的特大地震发生在河北唐山.这是一次震源深度约12 km的浅源地震,最大烈度为11度,唐山市超过95%的民用建筑倒塌和受到严重破坏,造成了24万余人丧生、16万余人严重受伤的惨重后果.一个工业城市几乎被夷为废墟,造成了非常巨大的财产损失,在全国人民的心中留下了难以磨灭的伤痛.A strong earthquake may create a large number of casualties and huge property losses. Due to the crustal structure and geotectonic movement are complex, the geophysical process during the gestation and occurrence of earthquake is ex- tremely complex. So it is very difficult to forecast an earthquake in advance. Through studying and testing to find effec- tual earthquake precursors is one of the key for meliorating earthquake prediction. A phenomenon that short-term anom- alies appeared in residuals of astronomical time and latitude observations before major earthquakes, which occurred in regions around the astrometric instruments, was discovered by Chinese astronomers after Tangshan Earthquake in 1976. The phenomenon called the abnormalities of the residuals of astronomical time and latitude observations （ATLR）. The major characteristics of the phenomenon are generalized as follows： （1） before earthquakes that occurred in the area of several hundred kilometers radius around the instruments, short-term anomalies appeared in the three point smoothing sequence of five days average values of ATLR; （2） short-term anomalies often appeared before the earthquakes as fol- lows, earthquakes of M~〉7 within 3 or 4 hundred kilometers around instruments or M~〉 6 within 1 or 2 hundred kilome- ters around instruments as well as the moderate earthquakes that occurred at close range; （3） anomalies appeared in ad- vance by about several weeks to several months before earthquakes; （4） situations of residuals anomalies without earth- quake and earthquakes without residuals anomaly existed introduction of characteristics and research progress of the phenomenon. ATLR anomalies may be from the variation of the vertical, which is the datum line of such astrometric instruments, due to the anomalous motion of underground mass. The possibility that using the observations to provide information for strong earthquakes in advance has been researched and related tests to provide forecast information have made in China

关 键 词：地震前兆 应用 震源深度 地震发生 浅源地震 建筑倒塌 工业城市 财产损失 

分 类 号：P315.72[天文地球—地震学]