未来气候情景下冬小麦潜在北移区农业气候资源变化特征  

Variations of Agro-Climatic Resources Under a Future Climate Scenario in the Potential Northward Region of Winter Wheat

作　　者：张梦婷[1] 张玉静[1] 佟金鹤[1] 李阔[1] 潘婕[1] 许吟隆[1] Zhang Mengting Zhang Yujing Tong Jinhe Li Kuo Pan Jie Xu Yinlong(Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2017年第3期243-252,共10页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAC09B04);948计划重点项目(2011-G9)

摘　　要：基于区域气候模式系统PRECIS输出的RCP4.5气候情景数据分析表明,相较于1981—2010年,至2071—2097年冬小麦种植北界将平均向北移动147.8 km,北移面积约1.86×10~5 km^2。选取代表光、温、水资源的9项农业气候资源指标,探究未来情景下,2021—2097年冬小麦潜在北移区内农业气候资源变化特征,结果表明:(1)相较于基准时段(1961—1990年),未来潜在北移区内光照资源变化呈减少趋势;热量资源呈明显增加趋势,在21世纪末的30年,波动性加大;降水资源整体增加趋势不明显,但波动性亦呈现增大趋势。(2)未来潜在北移区内,2030T(2021—2050年)、2050T(2041—2070年)和2070T(2061—2090年)时段光照资源在研究区域的东北部减少幅度较大,而在西南部较小;热量资源在研究区域的北部增加比南部明显;降水资源则主要在研究区域的东北部增加明显。Based on future climate data under RCP4.5 scenario generated from the regional climate modeling system （PRECIS）, climatic northern boundary of winter wheat would move northward 147.8 km in 2071-2097 and possible planting area would increase by 1.86 ×105 km2 relative to 1981-2010. The variations of agro-climatic resources under RCP4.5 scenario in the potential northward region of winter wheat were analyzed based on the nine selected indexes of agro-climatic resources. Results indicated that： （1） compared with the climate baseline （1961-1990）, the light resource in potential northward region would decrease; heat resource would signifcantly increase with an enhanced variability in the last 30 years of the 21st century; precipitation resource shows an overall slight increasing trend but with an greater fuctuation; （2） in the time slice 2030T （2021-2050）, 2050T （2041-2070）, and 2070T （2061-2090）, light resource would decrease more in the northeast of study area, while less in the southwest; heat resource would increase more in northern area than southern part; precipitation resource would increase obviously in northeast of the potential northward region.

关 键 词：RCP4.5 冬小麦 种植北界 农业气候资源 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学] S512.11[农业科学—农业基础科学]