中国企业参与全球价值链的持续时间及其决定因素  

The Duration of GVC Embedment and Decisive Factors:Evidence from China

作　　者：吕越[1] 刘之洋[2] 吕云龙[3] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [3]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年第6期37-53,共17页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"金融市场开放与本土制造业的出口价值链升级:来自中国的微观证据"(71503048);对外经济贸易大学学科建设专项经费资助(XK2016106)的支持

摘　　要：研究目标:考察中国企业参与全球价值链的持续时间及其决定因素。研究方法:采用2000~2007年中国企业面板数据,通过生存分析模型进行研究。研究发现:中国企业进入和退出全球价值链(GVC)的企业数量大体呈上升趋势,企业总体嵌入GVC的持续时间较短,均值为1.827年,且随着持续时间增长企业生存的危险性逐渐降低。其中东部地区企业、加工贸易企业、民营企业和外资企业在GVC中的生存率更高,风险率更低,持续嵌入GVC的能力更强。出口发达国家的企业、加工贸易企业、民营企业、外资企业和具有较好研发能力、全要素生产率较高、规模较大、融资约束较小、年龄较小的企业退出GVC的概率更低,嵌入GVC的持续时间更长。研究创新:构建企业层面价值链嵌入程度指标,并运用生存分析创新性地考察中国企业在全球价值链中的进入退出行为。研究价值:对评析贸易开放的利得以及寻求"中国制造"在全球价值链中持续经营的模式具有重要的理论意义。Objectives： Investigate the duration of GVC embedment and its decisive factors. Research Methods： This paper uses firm level unbalanced panel data from China Industrial Firm Level Survey Database and China Transaction Level Customs Database during 2000-2007 and researches by survival analysis. Research Findings： The number of Chinese enterprises that enter and quit GVC shows an upward trend. Also, the number of these enterprises in east region are significantly more than the central and western regions, and they mainly consist of labor-intensive enterprises. For another, Chinese enterprises＇ duration of GVC embedment is relatively short, whose mean value is 1. 827 years. And with the increase in duration, enterprises＇ hazard rate declines. Enterprises in east region, processing trade enterprises, private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises have higher survival rate and lower hazard rate. And this paper finds that enterprises that export to developed countries, processing trade enterprises, private enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises, enterprises with R＆D ability, high total factor productivity, big scale, loose financing constraints and young age have low probability of quitting GVC, and longer duration of GVC embedment. Research Innovations： Build cooperate level index of GVC embedment, and innovatively use survival analysis to investigate the enter and quit behavior of Chinese enterprises. Research Value： Have significant theoretical value on the analysis of trade openness benefits and the exploration of the mode of continuous operation of ＂Made in China＂ in the Global Value Chain.

关 键 词：全球价值链企业 生存模型 进入退出 持续时间 

分 类 号：F424.6[经济管理—产业经济] F740.6