你一生工作多少年?——关于退休年龄的人口学分析  

How Many Years Would You Work in Your Life?:A Demographic Analysis on Retirement Age

作　　者：顾宝昌[1] 朱晓[2] 祁静[2] GU Baochang ZHU Xiao QI Jing(Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学社会与人口学院,北京100872

出　　处：《人口与经济》2017年第3期1-13,共13页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"我国生育政策调整带来的新社会问题研究"(14ZDB150)

摘　　要：在法定退休年龄不变的情况下,随着人们受教育程度及预期寿命的不断变化,不仅个人生命历程出现不同程度的工作期压缩和退休期延长,而且也影响到整个人口代际之间的供给变化。显然,目前的退休年龄规定已经滞后于我国人口的实际变动。本研究主要采用联合国《2015年世界人口展望》的预测数据,以人生三个时期(成长期、工作期和退休期)的相互变动来反映个人生命历程各阶段及总人口抚养比的变化,展示退休年龄的适当推延是社会变化的必然趋势,有助于释放因教育程度提高而挤压的工作时间,延长劳动人口自我积累的时间,同时也能够缓解代际之间的供给压力。When the legal retirement age in China remains unchanged while the personal educational level and the life expectancy have changed greatly, it will inevitably not only bring in various degrees of the working period compressed and retirement period extended in personal life course, but also affects the intergenerational supply. The current official retirement age has obviously lagged behind the actual changes in the population and society primarily uses United Nations＇ World Population Prospects 2015 forecasting broad stages in life （ simulate the changes growth period, work period and retirement period ） in China. This study data, assuming three combined changes to in different stages of the life course and changes in China＇s population dependency ratio. This study demonstrates that appropriate postponement in retirement age is inevitable along with social development and it is conductive to release extrusion caused educational upgrading for working time, prolong the working population self-accumulation time. the same time, it also can alleviate the pressure of the intergenerational supply.

关 键 词：退休年龄 生命历程 人口年龄结构 抚养比 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]