理性住房市场条件下房价影响消费机理研究  

How Do House Prices Affect Household Consumption in the Rational Housing Markets

作　　者：陆丰刚[1] 陈寅平[1] 符建华[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨商业大学,黑龙江哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《产业经济评论》2017年第3期111-124,共14页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目<基于协同效应的增强我国居民消费能力制度体系构建研究>(20132332120001);教育部人文社科规划项目;中国房价的内源矛盾及长效稳定机制构建(13YJA790100);国家社会科学基金项目"跨越中等收入陷阱与我国产业结构调整;优化关联研究"(15BJL042);哈尔滨商业大学博士科研启动基金项目<制度;居民消费能力与经济福利研究>(12DW026)

摘　　要：本文以生命周期——持久收入理论为依据构建家庭跨期住房-消费决策模型,通过最优化方法求解均衡得到家庭最优决策。根据房产市场发展情况分四种类型对理性住房条件下家庭最优消费与房价变化关系进行比较静态分析。结论显示,房价变化对家庭消费的影响,一方面,取决于市场发展情况,包括房产逆向抵押市场、二手房市场的建设,另一方面,取决于家庭对住房的心理偏好,即住房在家庭心中的地位。房产市场发展不健全情况下,房价上升会抑制强住房偏好家庭的消费,增加弱住房偏好家庭的消费。这很好地解释了大多数研究得出的我国房价上涨与家庭消费呈反向变化的结论。房产市场发展健全条件下,房价变化对家庭消费的影响,除了取决于家庭住房偏好外,还取决于是本期房价变化还是预期房价变化。Based on life cycle-permanent income theory, this paper sets a intertemporal model of housing and consumption of households. The households＇ best decision of housing and consumption is solved for through the maximization method. According to different development status of housing markets, the responses of household consumption to house prices of 4 types of households are analyzed through a comparative static analysis. The analysis reveals that the responses of household consumption to house prices depend on the development of housing markets and the psychological preference to owning a house of households, say, the importance of housing in the household＇s utility. If the housing market is poorly developed, the rise of house prices will hinder the consumption of households with strong appetites for owning houses and increase the consumption of households with weak appetites for owning houses, which explains thoroughly that most empirical studies on China find there is a negative wealth effect of China＇s housing. If the housing markets are mature the responses of household consumption to house prices not only depend on households＇ preferences, but whether it is the current price or the expectation price.

关 键 词：理性住房市场 房价 家庭消费 影响机理 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F299.23