创业如何带动就业?——基于1997—2013年中国省区数据的创业与就业关系及时滞性  

How Can Entrepreneurship Promote Employment Growth?——Research on the Relationship between Entrepreneurship and Employment Growth and the Time Delay Based on the 1997—2013 Provincial Data of China

作　　者：侯永雄[1,2] 谌新民[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学经济与管理学院 [2]华南师范大学学生工作部(处)/创业学院

出　　处：《华南师范大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第3期100-108,共9页Journal of South China Normal University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目"大学生创业意向与创业行为追踪研究"(14YJC880045)

摘　　要：目前国内外学者对创业与就业关系的研究主要有两种观点:一种认为创业可以促进就业增长;另一种则认为创业与就业增长之间关系不明确。采用1997—2013年中国30个省区面板数据,对创业与就业增长的关系进行实证检验,结果显示创业可以促进就业增长,具体表现在创业率每增加1个单位,就业增长率增加0.26个百分点。在此基础上进一步研究,发现机会型创业比生存型创业带动就业效应更加显著;不同地区、不同时间创业带动就业效应存在差异。通过阿尔蒙滞后模型实证考察创业带动就业的时间滞后性,发现创业通过直接效应可以及时有效促进就业增长;而由于存在挤出效应和增长效应两种间接效应,创业在第2年表现为减少就业,第3—4年带动就业,第5—6年再次造成就业损失,第7年重新带动就业;创业的总体效应为促进就业增长。Currently,domestic and foreign scholars who research on the relationship between entrepreneurship and employment growth mainly have two views:one is that entrepreneurship can promote employment growth,the other one is that the relationship between entrepreneurship and employment growth is not clear.This study adopts the 1997—2013 data of 30 provinces of China to examine the relationship between entrepreneurship and employment growth,and the results show that entrepreneurship can promote employment growth.Further study finds that the driving effect of opportunity-orientated entrepreneurship is more obvious than that of necessity-push entrepreneurship on employment growth,and the entrepreneurship happening in different regions and at different times promotes employment differently.Besides,by an empirical test on the delay time of entrepreneurship driving employment with Almon lag model,it is discovered that entrepreneurship can effectively promote the growth of employment through direct effect;however,because of the two kinds of indirect effects which are substitution effect and growth effect,entrepreneurship reduces employment in the second years,increases employment in the3rd—4th years,causes employment losses in the 5th—6th years again and re-drives employment in the seventh years.The overall effect of entrepreneurship on employment growth is promotion.

关 键 词：创业 就业增长 滞后 失业 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]