传染病动力学模型在隔离预防轮状病毒医院感染中的应用  

Application of epidemic dynamics model in isolating hospital-acquired rotavirus infection

作　　者：黄璜[1] 单旭征[1] 龙云淑[1] 许春琼[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都大学附属医院,四川成都610081

出　　处：《中国感染控制杂志》2017年第5期470-473,共4页Chinese Journal of Infection Control

基　　金：成都大学青年基金项目(2015XJZ32);金牛区科协资助项目

摘　　要：目的构建轮状病毒(RV)医院内传播及防控策略的传染病动力学模型。方法应用传染病动力学的方法,构建不同隔离措施下的RV SEIR模型,评价隔离措施效果。结果假设对所有患者进行隔离,在传播第3天采取隔离措施,则感染者在传播第5天为4.3例,在第7天达高峰(6.4例),直至传播第14天,感染者人数降至3.4例。在传播第2天采取隔离措施,则感染者在传播第6天达4.0例,第8天感染者即降至3.2例。在传播第1天采取隔离措施,则感染者最多为2.4例,即不会发生医院感染暴发。早期隔离能有效阻止RV感染暴发,隔离时间越晚,感染人数越多,暴发持续时间越长。结论 RV医院感染暴发较易发生,早期发现,及时隔离RV患儿是防止医院感染暴发的有效措施。ObjectiveTo establish an epidemic dynamics model of the transmission and prevention strategies of rotavirus infection in hospital.MethodsRotavirus SEIR model based on different isolation measures was constructed using epidemic dynamics method, the effectiveness of isolation measures was evaluated.ResultsSupposing that all patients were isolated, isolation measures were taken on the 3^rd day of transmission, there were 4.3 cases of infection on the 5^th day of transmission, peaked on the 7^th day（n=6.4）, until the 14th day of transmission, the number of infected persons fell to 3.4 cases. If isolation measures were taken on the 2^nd day of transmission, the infected persons reached 4.0 on the 6th day, and reduced to 3.2 cases on the 8th day. If isolation measures were taken on the 1st day of transmission, the infected persons reached 2.4 at most, healthcareassociated infection would not occur. Early isolation can effectively prevent the outbreak of rotavirus infection, the later the isolation, the more the infection occurs and the longer the outbreak lasts.ConclusionRotavirus infection can easily break out in hospital, early discovery and early isolation of rotavirus infected child is the effective measure to avoid rotavirus infection outbreak in hospital.

关 键 词：轮状病毒 医院感染 SEIR 婴幼儿腹泻 接触传播 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科]