基于可靠性的天然气管道水合物形成概率  

The formation probability of hydrate in natural gas pipelines based on reliability

作　　者：阮超宇 史博会[1] 丁麟[1] 柳扬 黄启玉[1] 张静楠[2] 宫敬[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)/油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室/石油工程教育部重点实验室/城市油气输配技术北京市重点实验室 [2]中国石油管道科技研究中心

出　　处：《油气储运》2017年第5期487-494,共8页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(重点基金)资助项目“含蜡原油常温输送机理及流动改性方法研究”,51534007;国家自然科学基金资助项目“流动体系油包水乳状液微观特性对气体水合物生成传质传热影响机理研究”,51306208;国家自然科学基金资助项目“深水油气混输管线水合物浆液形成理论与流动规律研究”,51274218;国家自然科学基金资助项目“深水环境下易凝高粘原油-天然气输送系统流动保障基础问题研究”,51134006;国家重大专项“海上管道降凝输送及流动管理技术研究”,2016ZX05028-004-001;国家重点研发计划资助项目“基于深水功能舱的全智能新一代水下系统关键技术研究”,SQ2016YFSF010222;中国石油大学(北京)科研基金资助项目“海洋输运管道流动及传递理论研究”,2462015YQ0404

摘　　要：随着海洋油气田开发逐步进入深海领域,深水流动安全保障将面临巨大的挑战,分析天然气管道水合物形成概率是保障管道安全流动的基础。基于可靠性的极限状态方法,综合考虑管道运行参数的不确定性,选择管道入口温度、压力及流量为随机变量,以热力学和动力学为基础,建立概率极限状态方程,并运用LHS-Monte Carlo方法、POD方法计算水合物的形成概率,实现了以概率形式定量描述天然气管道中水合物形成风险的目的。结果表明:管道水合物形成概率曲线达到稳定所需的样本总数随管道具体情况和随机变量参数而变化;水合物形成概率对不同随机影响因素的敏感性不同;临界过冷度对天然气管道水合物形成概率有较大的影响。合理选择或调整入口随机参数能够有效降低水合物形成概率,从而保障管道的安全运行。As the development targets of offshore oil and gas fields transfers to deep sea areas, the deep-water flow assurance is faced with enormous challenges. The analysis on the formation probability of hydrate in natural gas pipelines is the basis to ensure the safe flow in pipelines. In this paper, the probability limit state equation was established according to thermodynamics and kinetics. In this equation, inlet temperature, pressure and flow rate are taken as random variables after the uncertainty of pipeline operation parameters was investigated comprehensively by means of the reliability based limit state method. Then, hydrate formation probability was calculated by LHS-Monte Carlo method and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition （POD） method. Thus, the risk of hydrate formation in natural gas pipelines can be described quantitatively in the form of probability. It is indicated that the sum of samples which is necessary for stable formation probability curve of hydrate in natural gas pipelines varies with the pipeline circumstances and the random variables. The sensitivity of hydrate formation probability to different random influential factors is different. The formation probability of hydrate in natural gas pipelines is affected more by the critical subcooling. Hydrate formation probability can be reduced effectively by selecting or adjusting the inlet random parameters rationally, so that the safe operation of pipelines can be ensured. （7 Figures, 2 Tables, 31 References）

关 键 词：水合物 诱导期 过冷度 可靠性 概率 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]