1960—2014年松嫩草地极端气候事件的时空变化  

Temporal and spatial variations of extreme climatic events in Songnen Grassland,Northeast China during 1960-2014

作　　者：马齐云 张继权[1] 来全[1] 张峰[1] 董振华[1] 阿鲁思 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学环境学院自然灾害研究所,长春130024

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2017年第6期1769-1778,共10页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAK05B02);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2412016KJ046);国家气候中心项目(2015001);国家自然科学基金项目(41571491)资助~~

摘　　要：基于1960—2014年松嫩草地13个气象站点的日值记录数据,计算与区域水旱寒热灾害、植被生长发育密切相关的14个极端气候指数;利用线性趋势法、间断趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall检验、Sen斜率估计和滑动t检验等方法,分析松嫩草地极端气候事件的发生趋势与时空格局.结果表明:表征极端高温指数的夏日日数、暖昼日数、暖夜日数、暖持续指数均呈显著上升趋势,表征低温指数的霜日日数、冷昼日数、冷夜日数、冷持续指数均呈明显下降趋势,区域变暖趋势显著;区域极端低温的增幅大于极端高温的增幅,夜间增温幅度大于白昼;1970—2009年区域气候变暖趋势较为明显,各指数突变也集中发生在这一时期;表征极端降水的各指数变化趋势不显著,普通日降水强度和持续干燥指数呈下降趋势,5日最大降水量、强降水量、年湿期降水总量和持续湿润指数呈微弱上升趋势,表明区域气候呈微弱的暖湿化特征;松嫩草地南部和北部地区是对气候变暖响应最显著的区域;对极端降水指数而言,各指数南北分异特征明显,区域北部以变湿为主要特征,而南部则以变干为主要特征,尤其是区域西南部的干旱风险较高.Fourteen extreme climatic indices related with main regional meteorological disasters and vegetation growth were calculated based on daily data from 13 meteorological stations during 1960- 2014 in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China. Then, the variation trend and the spatial and tempo- ral patterns of climatic extreme events were analyzed by using regression analysis, break trend analy- sis, Mann-Kendall test, Sen＇ s slope estimator and moving t-test method. The results indicated that summer days （ SU25 ）, warm days （ TX90P ）, warm nights （ TN90P ） and warm spell duration （WSDI） representing extremely high temperatures showed significant increasing trends （ P〈0.05 ）. Meanwhile, frost days （FD0）, cold days （TX10P）, cold nights （TN10P） and cold spell duration indicator （CSDI） representing extremely low temperatures showed obviously decreasing trends. The magnitudes of changes in cold indices （FD0, TX10P, TN10P and CSDI） were clearly greater than those of warm indices （ SU25, TX90P, TN90P and WSDI） , and that changes in night indices were larger than those of day indices. Regional climate warming trend was obvious from 1970 to 2009, and the most occurrences of the abrupt changes in these indices were identified in this period. The extreme precipitation indices did not show obvious trend, in general, SDII and CDD experienced a slightly decreasing trend while RXSD, R95P, PRCPTOT and CWD witnessed a mildly increasing trend. It may be concluded that regional climate changed towards warming and slightly wetting in Songnen Grassland. The most sensitive region for extreme temperature was distributed in the south and north region. Additionally, the extreme temperature indices showed clearly spatial differencebetween the south and the north. As for the spatial variations of extreme precipitation indices, the climate could be characterized by becoming wetter in northern region, and getting drier in southern region, especially in southwestern region with a high drought risk.

关 键 词：极端气候事件 气候变化 间断趋势分析 时空变化 松嫩草地 

分 类 号：S812.1[农业科学—草业科学]