资源型城市大气污染物浓度的EKC特征分析——以邢台市为例  

Analysis on Environmental Kuznets Curve of Atmospheric Pollutant in Resource Type City:A Case Study of Xingtai City

作　　者：李玉平[1] 张璐璇[2] 朱琛[1] 成淑敏[1] 王艳超[1] 李亚翠 

机构地区：[1]邢台学院地理系,河北邢台054001 [2]河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,河北石家庄050016 [3]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048

出　　处：《生态经济》2017年第6期167-171,177,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金项目"基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的经济;能源与环境污染关系及对策研究--以邢台市为例"(D2016108005);河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目"南水北调中线工程邢台受水区的生态响应及良性调控机制研究"(ZD2016206);河北省高等学校青年拔尖人才计划项目"河北树轮气候响应及重建研究"(BJ201602);邢台市科技计划项目"邢台市众创空间发展现状及运营模式研究"(2016ZZ039);邢台市科技局自筹经费计划项目"邢台市农村家庭能源消费结构及调整对策研究"(2016ZC336)

摘　　要：运用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论、灰色预测模型,研究邢台市2003—2014年大气中污染物浓度与人均GDP的关系,分析各污染物浓度与经济增长之间的库兹涅茨曲线特征,并对未来人均GDP和污染物浓度进行预测。结果表明:大气EKC不符合倒"U"型关系,而是属于"N"型三次曲线关系。从拟合度来看,大气SO_2浓度与人均GDP的拟合度最高,其次为NO_2,最低的为PM10。说明在研究期内经济增长的一段时期内与倒"U"型关系相似,但当经济进一步发展时,大气环境质量会随经济增长而恶化。预测结果显示:大气中SO_2、NO_2和PM10年平均浓度值逐年增加。据此,文章提出有效控制邢台市大气中污染物浓度的措施,以促进该区域经济绿色健康快速发展。Based on the theory of environmental Kuznets curve （EKC） and Grey forecasting model, the relationship betweenenvironmental pollution and per capita of GDP from 2003 to 2014 has been examined in Xingtai City, and the characteristicsof atmospheric EKC between pollutant concentrations and economic growth has been analyzed. The results show that theenvironmental Kuznets curve does not consist with the inverted ＂U＂ type, instead, it was a ＂N＂ type with a cube relationship.This means that the EKC is similar to an inverted ＂U＂ in the certain period of economic growth. The fitting degrees weresignificant differences between environmental pollution and per capita of GDP, with the highest for SOz, followed by NO2,and PMj0. However, When the economy is further developed, the quality of atmosphere environment will deteriorate with theeconomic growth. The prediction results show： the average annual concentration of SO2, NOz and PM10 in the atmosphere hasincreased year by year. Accordingly, some effectively measures were established to control the airborne pollutant concentration,and to promote economic rapid, healthy and stable development.

关 键 词：邢台市 经济增长 环境污染 环境库兹涅茨曲线 灰色预测 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]