旅游产业生成周期与城镇化发展及就业吸纳分析——以张家界为例  

Analysis on Tourism Generated Cycle and the Development of Urbanization and Employment Absorption: A Case Study of Zhangjiajie

作　　者：麻学锋[1,2] 崔盼盼[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南商学院旅游管理学院,中国湖南长沙410205 [2]吉首大学商学院,中国湖南吉首416000

出　　处：《经济地理》2017年第5期199-207,共9页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41261024);国家社会科学基金项目(12CJY091);湖南省教育厅高校科研开放基金项目(15K103)

摘　　要：在旅游产业与城镇化及就业吸纳互动关系的理论分析基础上,从产业生成视角深入剖析旅游产业对城镇化及就业吸纳的影响。利用张家界1989—2014年相关数据,结合HP滤波分析法、生产函数模型、偏最小二乘法,研究发现:(1)旅游产业生成是城镇化、就业吸纳的单向格兰杰原因。(2)同一阶段,各变量对旅游产业生成的影响不同,同一变量在不同阶段对旅游产业生成的影响亦不同。(3)整个生成阶段,张家界旅游产业对城镇化发展呈积极正效应。出现期和生成期,模型拟合度较高,对城镇化发展的贡献呈递增态势;成熟期,模型拟合度最差,回归系数最小。(4)整个生成阶段,张家界旅游产业生成对就业吸纳起正向促进作用。出现期、发展期,回归模型比较理想,弹性系数b分别为0.6593、0.4061;生成期、成熟期模型拟合度很差,弹性系数b分别为0.0432、0.2914。Based on the analysis of tourism industry and the urbanization and employment absorption, the paper constructs seven various affections that from tourism industry to urbanization and employment absorption with the view of industrial generation. By using the HP filter method, the Zhangjiajie tourism industry cycle is zoned for emergence period, formation period, development period and mature period. Then using partial least squares analysis of power factors of each stage of the tourism industry and the impact of the power factor changes at different stages of development, and construct a linear regression model of urbanization and employment to analyze. The results show that： （1） on the lateral view, supporting industries can force tourism industry in each stage generating the greatest contribution and other dynamic factors in the extent, but each stage is different, and the effect is different. （2） on the longitudinal view, entrepreneurs＇ impact in the period of industrial development is the largest, then shows a decreasing trend; market information, resource elements are respectively in a generation; technical innovation, government policy, social environment and supporting capacity in each stage have a positive effect in the generation. （3） the formation of the tourism industry, the effects of urbanization and employment are one-way Granger causality. （4） in the generated cycle of different industries, the contribution of tourism industry to urbanization and employment absorption effect is different.

关 键 词：旅游业 全域旅游 产业生成周期 城镇化 就业吸纳 PLS分析 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]