西方制裁下的俄罗斯经济形势与政策  

Russia Economic Policy and Western Sanctions

作　　者：殷红[1,2] 崔铮[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学转型国家经济政治研究中心 [2]辽宁大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2017年第3期129-144,共16页International Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“西方经济制裁背景下的俄罗斯进口替代战略研究”(项目编号:16BGJ070);辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学重点研究基地专项课题“西方经济制裁背景下俄罗斯经济发展战略调整及其对中俄经济合作的影响研究--兼论辽宁省对俄经济合作的新机遇”(项目编号:ZJ2015027);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目“后危机时代俄罗斯经济发展战略的调整及对中俄东北地区合作的影响”(项目编号:L10BGL015)的资助

摘　　要：在西方经济制裁和油价下跌的背景下,2014-2015年俄罗斯经济陷入衰退与高通胀。2016年以来宏观经济形势逐步趋稳,特别是制造业出现较快增长,通胀率降至历史新低。在外部环境没有明显好转的情况下,俄经济出现转机的主要原因是政府在坚守"通胀目标制"紧缩性货币政策的同时,围绕进口替代实行积极的产业政策,促进制造业发展,从而实现了降通胀、促增长与调结构的多重功效,并为今后扩大投资、建立投资拉动型增长创造了有利条件。尽管俄罗斯较为成功地顶住了外部冲击的压力,其经济形势已出现转机,但远未走出发展困境。面对持续的西方经济制裁、低油价和即将到来的总统大选,俄罗斯依然处于发展道路与政策的抉择中。Against the backdrop of Western sanctions and falling oil prices, the Russian economy fell intorecession and suffered from high inflation in 2014 and 2015. Since 2016, Russia'smacroeconomic situation has gradually stabilized, with its manufacturing sector expanding at afast pace and inflation hitting a historical low. In the absence of entrenched improvement inthe external environment, the recovery of the Russian economy is mainly attributable to thecountry's sticking to its inflation target and tightening of monetary policy while implementingpro-active industrial policies to promote the development of manufacturing. As a result, thecountry has managed to lower inflation, boost growth and restructure its economy. Moreover, ithas also laid a solid foundation for further boosting investment and establish an investment-based growth mode. Although it has successfully withstood the pressure of external shocks,and its economic situation has improved, Russia is yet to step out of difficulties. It is still tryingto map out appropriate policies to sustain growth against the backdrop of continuing Westernsanctions, low oil prices and the upcoming presidential election.

关 键 词：双重危机叠加 通胀目标制 进口替代 投资拉动型增长 发展困境 

分 类 号：F151.2[经济管理—世界经济]