案例驱动的CI系统应急能力不足评估方法  

Case-driven Assessment Method for Emergency Capability Shortage of Critical Infrastructure System

作　　者：刘天畅[1,2] 李向阳[1] 于峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,哈尔滨150001 [2]中科信工程咨询(北京)有限责任公司,北京100039

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2017年第3期464-472,共9页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划项目(91024028;91024031;91324018);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71172156;71473058)

摘　　要：关键基础设施(Critical Infrastructure,CI)系统作为城市应急管理的重点,相应的应急能力需要得到有效保障。目前,相关研究主要关注于应急能力的整体评估,但其操作工作量较大且不易于快速有效地识别应急能力不足(Emergency Capability Shortage,ECS)。据此,阐述了案例驱动的CI系统应急能力不足评估方法,基于可用案例集和案例推理生成与约简应急能力不足清单后,分别计算模糊ECS值与区间ECS值,并以应急能力不足图谱表示应急能力不足的评估结果。该方法参照与利用历史案例,有利于解决评估缺乏关联性、针对性与预见性的问题。最后,通过在H市的案例分析来验证该方法的可行性与有效性。As the focus of urban emergency management, critical infrastructure （CI） system, the response capability must be guaranteed effectively. The current studies mainly focus on the integral assessment of emergency capability, and require relatively heavy workload to implement and are not easy to identify emergency capability shortage （ECS） quickly and effectively. In this paper, we propose a case-driven assessment method for CI system emergency capability shortage. After generating and reducing the ECS list based on the available case set and case-based reasoning, the fuzzy ECS value and interval ECS value can be computed, respectively, and the results of ECS assessment can be expressed by ECS map. The proposed method is useful to deal with the assessment problems of lacking in the relevance, pertinence and foreseeability by referring and using the historical cases. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are illustrated by a case study in H city.

关 键 词：案例驱动 关键基础设施系统 应急能力不足 评估方法 案例推理 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]