基于使用可靠性的空调分区保修期设计方法  

Research on design method of air-conditioning partition warranty period based on service reliability

作　　者：刘卫东[1,2] 孙政[1] 揭丽琳[1] 赵志伟 滕沙沙[1] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学机电工程学院,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌航空大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330063 [3]珠海格力电器股份有限公司,广东珠海519070

出　　处：《南昌大学学报（理科版）》2017年第1期36-41,共6页Journal of Nanchang University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71461020);广东省科技厅产学研合作项目(2012B091100175);江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(11686)

摘　　要：中国大陆幅员辽阔,分布在不同地理区域的空调产品具有不同的使用可靠性。提出了基于使用可靠性的分区保修期制定方法,以更好地实现企业和顾客的双赢:首先,根据空调故障判定标准以及时间浓缩的方法对空调售后故障数据进行处理,运用指数分布模型的极大似然估计方法预测分布在不同省域的空调使用可靠度;其次,通过最优保修期求解模型分别求出各省级区划单位的保修期,定量揭示地理区域对空调使用可靠度和保修期的影响程度;以此为基础,利用模糊C均值聚类法对各省级区划单位的保修期进行聚类分析,提出一区一策的保修期制定建议;最后,以某企业分布于中国大陆南方区域的13个省域的某型空调为研究对象,验证了所提出方法的有效性。研究成果对冰箱、洗衣机和热水器等类似家电产品使用可靠度的预测和保修策略的制定也具有较好的参考价值。The service reliahility of an air-conditioning was subject to its geographical area. The paper put forward a partition warranty method based on the service reliability to guarantee the interests of enterprise and its customers. Firstly,the air-conditioning service failure data were processed by the failure criterion and the time concentration method,and the service reliability of air conditioning in different provinces was calculated by using the maximum likelihood estimation method of exponential distribution model. Accord- ing to the best warranty solution model, the warranty periods of the different provinces were acquired, which revealed the quantitative influences of the geographical area on service reliability and warranty. And then the warranty periods of different provinces were analyzed by the fuzzy C-means clustering method and educed the warranty period policy for each area. Finally, the air-conditionings which were installed in 13 provinces in the south part of China were used as an example to verify the effectiveness of the method. The research results of this paper also had a good reference value for the service reliability prediction and the formulation of warranty strategy of home appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines and water heaters.

关 键 词：空调 使用可靠度 分区保修 聚类分析 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]