MRI模式对华南春雨气候态及年际变率的模拟:不同模式分辨率的比较  

Simulation of Climatology and Interannual Variability of Spring Persistent Rains by MRI Model: Comparison of Different Horizontal Resolutions

作　　者：李普曦 周天军[1,2,3] 邹立维[1] 陈晓龙[1] 张文霞[1,2] 郭准[3,1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG),北京100029 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国科学院气候变化研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《大气科学》2017年第3期515-532,共18页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金41420104006;41330423;公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201506012;"气候变化"江苏高校协同创新中心~~

摘　　要：本文利用日本气象研究所(MRI)参加第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的大气环流模式在高、中、低三种分辨率下的AMIP试验结果,评估了其对华南春雨气候态和年际变率的模拟能力,比较了不同分辨率的模拟结果。结果表明,三种不同水平分辨率(120 km、60 km和20 km)的模式均能再现北半球春季位于中国东南部的降水中心。相较于120 km模式,20 km模式能够更为合理地模拟出华南春雨位于南岭—武夷山脉的降水中心。水汽收支分析表明,60 km、20 km模式高估了水汽辐合,使得华南春雨的降水强度被高估。在年际变率方面,在三种分辨率下,模式均能较好地再现观测中El Ni?o衰减年春季的西北太平洋反气旋以及华南春雨降水正异常。较之120 km模式,60 km、20 km模式模拟的降水正异常的空间分布和强度更接近观测,原因是后者模拟的El Ni?o衰减年春季华南地区的水平水汽平流异常更接近观测。本研究表明,发展高分辨率气候模式是提高华南春雨的气候态和年际变率模拟水平的有效途径之一。This study evaluated the performance of Meteorological Research Institute of Japan （MRI） atmospheric general circulation models （AGCMs） that participated in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 （CMIP5）, focusing on climatology and interannual variability of the Spring Persistent Rains （SPR） over southeastern China. Simulations of different horizontal resolutions （i.e., 120, 60, and 20 km） were also compared. The model could reasonably reproduce the main rainfall center over southeastern China in boreal spring under the three different resolutions. In comparison with the 120-km simulation, the simulation with 20-km resolution gave better results in simulating rainfall centers located in the Nanling-Wuyi Mountains, but overestimated rainfall intensity. Water vapor budget diagnosis showed that, both the 60 km and 20 km simulations tended to overestimate the water vapor convergence over southeastern China, which led to wet biases. With regard to interannual variability of SPR, the model could reasonably reproduce the anomalous lower-tropospheric anticyclone in the western North Pacific （WNPAC） and positive precipitation anomalies over southeastern China in the El Ni？o decaying spring. Compared with that of the 120-km simulation, the large positive biases were substantially reduced in the 60-km and 20-km resolution simulations because the horizontal moisture advection in El Ni？o decaying spring was more realistically simulated. The results highlight the importance of developing high resolution climate model for improving the simulation of climatology and interannual variability of SPR.

关 键 词：MRI 华南春雨 高分辨率模式 气候态 水汽收支诊断 年际变率 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]