韶山市红色旅游与农业发展的格兰杰因果关系分析  

A Granger Cause Analysis of the Relationship Between the Red Tourism and the Agriculture Development in Shaoshan City

作　　者：向延平[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南女子学院旅游系,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《重庆三峡学院学报》2017年第3期29-33,共5页Journal of Chongqing Three Gorges University

基　　金：湖南省社会科学基金项目"韶山红色旅游融合发展研究"(15YBA209);湖南省教育厅资助科研项目"韶山红色旅游融合发展博弈研究"(15C0704)阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于VAR模型对韶山市2001—2015年旅游收入(LY)和农业产值(NY)之间关系进行脉冲响应和格兰杰分析。结果表明:LY和NY序列存在非平稳性,LLY和LNY序列非平稳性不显著,其一阶差分DLLY、DLNY即LLY、LNY则存在平稳性,从而可建立VAR模型;通过脉冲响应分析,LNY对LLY具有正响应,LLY对LNY同样具有正响应;通过格兰杰因果分析,在滞后期为1的情况下,LLY和LNY不存在相互影响,即LNY不是LLY的格兰杰成因,LLY不是LNY的格兰杰成因,说明韶山市旅游发展与农业发展融合不明显。The paper makes the impulse response and Granger Cause about the relationships between LY and NY based on the VAR from 2001 to 2015 of Shaoshan City. The results show that there is instability in both LY and NY series, while the instability in LLY and LNY series are insignificant, in which the first order difference DLLY and DLNY shows that LLY and LNY is stable which in ann can establish the VAR model. Through the impulse response analysis, there is a positive response of LLY to LNY and so as LNY to LLY. Through the Granger Cause analysis, in the lag of 1 case, there is no mutual influence between LLY and LNY, i.e., LLY and LNY are not the Granger Cause for each other, which suggests that the tourism and the industry in Shaoshan are not co-developed.

关 键 词：旅游收入 农业产值 脉冲响应 格兰杰因果分析 

分 类 号：F590.1[经济管理—旅游管理]