蔬菜农事操作天气适宜性判别模型验证  

Verification and Evaluation of Meteorological Suitability Model for Agricultural Operations in Vegetables

作　　者：陈蔚烨 翟志宏[2] 李卫鹏 周卓董 

机构地区：[1]化州市气象局,广东化州525100 [2]广东省气候中心,广东广州510640 [3]广州神农田园农业有限公司,广东从化510920 [4]华南师范大学数学科学学院,广东广州510631

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2017年第1期107-111,共5页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广州市科技计划项目(2014J4100018);广东省气象局青年英才助推计划项目共同资助

摘　　要：基于从化国家气象站2013~2015年的逐日气象资料,利用农事操作天气适宜性判别模型计算逐日农事操作适宜度,并根据广州神农田园农业有限公司2013~2015年共计691天生产记录中提取的约8000条农事操作记录,对施肥、喷药和收获这三项农事操作天气适宜性判别模型进行了验证。通过逐日对比、卡方检验以及典型气象灾害过程个例分析,得到如下结论:(1)天气适宜性模型判别结论与实际农事操作较为一致,施肥、喷药和收获操作一致率分别为77.9%、89.7%和93.5%;(2)经卡方检验,天气适宜性模型判别结论与施肥、喷药和收获决定是否进行操作均显著关联(P<0.001);(3)在持续性不利天气条件下,天气适宜性模型判别结论与实际农事操作不一致的情况容易出现,受到实际生产条件的制约,有时需要在不利天气条件下进行农事操作;(4)需要调整和细化天气适宜性模型,以提升农事操作预报服务产品的实用性。Based on daily meteorological records of Conghua station from 2013-2015, daily meteorological suitability of agricultural operations are calculated by an evaluation model. 8000 agricultural operations record derived from daily records of Guangzhou Shen-nong-tian Agriculture Co., Ltd are introduced to verify the evaluation model. By employing daily verification, square test and verification during typical meteorological disasters, four main results can be drawn： Meteorological suitability of agricultural operations are records, where the agreement rate for; fertilizer spraying, -yuan Chi- （1） generally consistent with the daily operation pesticide spraying and harvesting are 77.9%, 89.7% and 93.5%. （2） Meteorological suitability model conclusions are significantly associated with fertilizer, pesticide spraying and harvesting decisions （P〈0.001） （3） During a continuous weather process, daily operations records are sometimes inconsistent with meteorological suitability of agricultural operations. Subject to the constraints of the actual production conditions, famers have to work under bad weather occasionally. （4） The meteorological suitability model should be refined, in order to improve agricultural weather service benefit.

关 键 词：气象适宜度 施肥 喷药 收获 卡方检验 广州 

分 类 号：S165[农业科学—农业气象学]