大型电站锅炉制造企业基于项目风险规避的滚动年度排产计划方法的研究  

Research on Annually Rolling Production Planning Method Based on Project Risk Aversion for Utility Boiler Manufacturer

作　　者：金向农[1] 黄金廷[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海锅炉厂有限公司,上海200245

出　　处：《锅炉技术》2017年第3期75-80,共6页Boiler Technology

摘　　要：首先介绍电站锅炉、排产计划及其风险等主要背景情况,应用项目管理相关理论和方法;然后应用层次分析法构建电站锅炉项目排产风险"五因子"模型,并详细介绍了基于该风险规避模型的滚动年度排产计划编制方法和分析了其优缺点。最后,在计划节点化及成本发生分析的基础上,对滚动年度排产计划进行优化并为排产项目提供风险过程控制的手段。基于项目风险规避的滚动年度排产计划方法,做到了滚动排产和风险规避相辅相成,实现排产项目风险的过程控制和排产计划滚动调整,为整个企业相对平稳地组织生产和管理创造良好条件,同时最大程度地减少风险损失。Firstly, the background of utility boiler, production planning and its risk is presented as well as application of project management theories and methods. Secondly, ＂Five Factors＂ model of project production planning risk for utility boiler is established using AHP method. And then, annually rolling planning method based on the project risk aversion model is presented and its advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. Finally, through 10- nodes planning and analysis of cost occurrence, the annually rolling planning is optimized and the means are provided to control process risk for the planned projects. With rolling planning and risk aversion complement each other, the annually rolling planning method based on the project risk aversion achieves both planned project risk process control and plan rolling adjustment in the result that good conditions are created for smooth production organization and management in the whole of the enterprise, and the risk of loss is reduced to the high degree of low.

关 键 词：电站锅炉 项目排产 风险规避 滚动计划法 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]