黑龙江省降水变化趋势及其对农业生产的影响研究  

Variation of Precipitation and Its Impact on Agricultural Production in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：李天霄[1] 付强[1] 孟凡香[1] 崔嵩[1] 刘东[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2017年第5期103-108,共6页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51479032;51579044);黑龙江省杰出青年基金项目(JC201402);黑龙江省长江学者后备支持计划;黑龙江省水利厅科技项目(201318;201503)

摘　　要：基于黑龙江省36个气象站的降水量数据和12个地级市及1个地区的农业相关数据,采用改进的MannKendall检验法,通过计算年降水量和季节降水量的趋势检验统计量Z值,揭示了研究区降水量的变化趋势,进而分析了农业旱涝灾害的空间分布。结果表明,黑龙江省大部分地区冬、春季节降水量呈现上升趋势,夏、秋季节降水量及年降水量均呈下降趋势。黑龙江省农业受涝灾影响大于旱灾,涝灾主要分布在黑龙江省东部的双鸭山市、鹤岗市和佳木斯市,其未来降水量的下降趋势可在一定程度上缓解涝灾产生的危害;旱灾主要分布在黑龙江省西部的齐齐哈尔地区,其未来降水量的增加趋势可在一定程度上缓解旱灾产生的危害。Using precipitation data measured at 36 weather stations and agricultural production data from 13cities/ region across Heilongjiang province, we calculated the Z value of annual and seasonable precipitations using the modified Mann-Kendall test method in attempts to analyze the variation of precipitation and its consequent impact on spatio-temporal distributions of drought and flood hazards. The results showed that most regions in the prov- ince see an increase in precipitation from winter to spring and a decrease from summer to autumn;the province has more flooding than droughts. Flooding occurs mainly in Shuangyashan, Hegang and Jiamusi in the Sanjiang plain, and drought occurs mainly in Qiqihar in the west of the province.

关 键 词：黑龙江省 降水量 变化趋势 农业旱涝灾害 MANN-KENDALL 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]