舰载机间断型备件的需求预测方法  

Demand Forecast Method of Intermittent Spare Parts for Carrier-based Aircraft

作　　者：王梓行 韩维[3] 苏析超 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军91899部队 [2]海军航空工程学院研究生管理大队 [3]海军航空工程学院飞行器工程系

出　　处：《兵工自动化》2017年第5期40-43,共4页Ordnance Industry Automation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51375490)

摘　　要：针对舰载机随舰出航过程中舰载机间断型备件的需求预测具有一定的特殊性,提出一种基于灰色系统和时间聚合的适用于舰载机间断型备件的需求预测方法。将备件发生需求定为异常值,利用灰色灾变预测对发生需求的航段进行预测,得到需求发生的时间;采用时间聚合法对备件需求量进行聚合处理,结合各影响因素利用GM(1,N)进行预测,解聚合后得到备件需求数量。实际案例分析表明:该方法预测精度较高,优于Croston法和Boostrap法等传统方法。For special characteristics of carrier-based aircraft intermittent spare parts requirement forecasting in carrier-based aircraft set out with ship, put forwards the requirements forecasting method of carrier-based aircraft intermittent spare parts based on grey system and time polymerization. Set the spare parts requirements as the abnormal value, use grey disaster forecasting to forecast the cruise phase which generating requirements, and acquire requirement generating time. The time polymerization method carries out polymerization processing for spare part requirements, combine with influence factors and use GM（1,N）, acquire spare parts requirements quantity after disaggregation. The example results show that the precision of this method is proved to be better than that of Croston method and Boostrap method.

关 键 词：舰载机 间断型备件 灰色系统 时间聚合 

分 类 号：TP182[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]