基于供应链角度的中国天然气进口风险研究  

Risk analysis of natural gas imports in China from the perspective of supply chain

作　　者：董秀成[1] 孔朝阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)

出　　处：《天然气工业》2017年第5期113-118,共6页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"我国天然气安全预警与应急系统研究"(编号:71273277);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"扩大我国油气战略储备研究"(编号:11JZD048)

摘　　要：近年来,中国天然气对外依存度快速增长,2016年已达33.4%。在天然气进口的过程中会面临各种风险,由于地理位置、经济环境、资源禀赋等的差异,中国从不同国家和地区进口天然气的风险并不完全相同。为此,以供应链为基础,构建了中国天然气进口风险指标体系,并使用熵权法计算指标权重,进而计算了中国2011—2014年从不同国家进口天然气的风险。研究结果表明:(1)2011—2014年,中国天然气进口风险总体呈上升趋势,其中陆上管道进口风险总体上小于海上进口风险;(2)从进口来源的角度分析,从土库曼斯坦进口天然气的风险最大,其次是卡塔尔、也门、乌兹别克斯坦、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、澳大利亚等国家。结论认为:中国应从优化天然气进口来源、加强天然气运输通道安全、扩大海外天然气开发投资、培养天然气自给能力等4个方面着手,降低天然气进口的风险,从而保证天然气供应的持续性和稳定性。In recent years, natural gas foreign dependence in China has been rapidly increasing, reaching 33.4% in 2016, for example. However, the risks in the process of import vary with different source countries or regions due to geophysical location, economic environment, resources quality, etc. In view of this, a risk index system of natural gas imports in China was established from the perspective of supply chain. The entropy method was applied to calculate the regions during 2011-2014, with the following findings obtained. index weight so as to obtain the risk values from different countries and （1） Natural gas import risks are generally rising, with continental risks being lower than sea risks on the whole. （2） From the perspective of import sources, the risks of natural gas imports from Turkmenistan are the highest, followed by Uzbekistan, Malaysia, Yemen, Indonesia, Australia, etc. In conclusion, countermeasures should be taken in China from the aspects of optimizing natural gas import sources, strengthening the security of natural gas transporting channels, expand- ing natural gas development investment, and enhancing self-sufficiency, so as to mitigate such import risks and guarantee the sustainabil- ity and stability of natural gas supply in China.

关 键 词：中国 天然气 进口风险 指标 体系 供应链 熵权法 持续性 稳定性 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61