基于变权灰色关联法的长江荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度分析  

Degree of Water Shortage in the Three Outlets of Southern Jingjiang River Calculated by Variable Weight Grey Correlation Method

作　　者：代稳[1,2] 吕殿青[2] 王金凤[1] 张府柱[3] 仝双梅[1] DAI Wen LU Dian-qing WANG Jin-feng ZHANG Fu-zhu TONG Shuang-mei(Department of Environmental and Resources Sciences,Liupanshui Normal University, Liupanshui 553004, China College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Hunan Normal University,China Department of Mathematics, Liupanshui Normal University, Liupanshui 553004, China)

机构地区：[1]六盘水师范学院环境与资源科学系,长沙410081 [2]湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,长沙410081 [3]六盘水师范学院数学系,贵州六盘水553004

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2017年第6期17-23,共7页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：贵州省科学技术基金项目(黔科合LH字[2015]7632号;黔科合LH字[2014]7451号)

摘　　要：对荆南三口地区水资源短缺程度进行分析研究,为实现区域水资源可持续合理利用提供科学依据。在水资源短缺评价研究中,前期研究成果大多采用常权法确定评价指标,致使评价指标产生状态失衡。将变权理论引入到水资源短缺程度分析中,从而确定评价指标变权重,并结合灰色关联法,构建水资源短缺程度分析的变权灰色关联法模型并加以应用。最终得出荆南三口地区三县的水资源短缺程度均为轻度缺水,其缺水程度排序为:华容县>南县>安乡县。利用变权灰色关联法计算水资源短缺程度,方法可行,结果合理,满足了评价指标均衡性要求。The objective of the study is to analyze the water shortage in the three outlets of southern Jingjiang river and to provide scientific basis for the sustainable rational utilization of water resources in the region. The use of con-stant weight methods in previous studies resulted in state imbalance of evaluation indicathe variable weight theory is adopted to define the variable weight of evaluation indicators. Furthermore, in associa-tion with gray correlation method, the gray correlation model of water shortage is established and applied to evalua-ting the water shortage in the three outlets of southern Jingiang river. The water resources in three outlets of Jingiang river are all in small shortage, and the shortage degree in Huarong county is the largest, followed by Nanxian county and Anxiang county. The variable weight gray correlation method is feasible culating water shortage degree, and it meets the requirements of a balanced evaluation.

关 键 词：变权 灰色关联 水资源短缺程度 荆南三口地区 评价指标均衡性 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]