产业结构、最优规模与中国城市化路径选择  

Industrial Structure,Optimal Scale and the Urbanization Path in China

作　　者：王垚[1] 年猛[2] 王春华[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院中国边疆研究所 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所 [3]对外经济贸易大学

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2017年第1期441-462,共22页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CJY019)的资助

摘　　要：本文以新经济地理学框架下的城市最优规模理论为指导,以中国为例估计出人均产出水平与城市规模之间存在倒"U"形关系,即随着人口的增加,人均产出水平先上升,随后下降。城市偏离最优规模会造成聚集收益的损失,而未达到最优规模的城市经济收益损失要大于超过最优规模的城市(即人口过度聚集)产生的经济收益损失。同时,城市最优规模水平随着产业结构的不同而变化,由于服务业对就业的吸纳能力高于工业,因此工业比重高的城市最优规模水平低于服务业占据主导地位的城市。除此之外,城市最优规模水平还受到市场潜力、技术与知识水平、资本积累等方面因素的影响。Under the framework of the new economic geography, we take China as an example to estimate the relationship between the output per capitaand city scale. We find that output per capita first increases and then decreases with the rising of population. Deviation from optimal scale leads to return losses and more losses will incur if the city does not reach its optimal scale. Meanwhile, the optimal scale of cities changes along with industrial structure. Specifically, as the employment absorptive capacity of service industry is higher than manufacturing industry, so service dominated city will have a large scale of population. In addition, the optimal scale of city is also influenced by market potential, technology, knowledge and capital accumulation.

关 键 词：产业结构 最优规模 城市化路径 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F299.2F121.3