“英国脱欧”将如何影响中国的“一带一路”战略——基于GTAP模型的分析  

How will Brexit Impact China's "One Belt One Road" Strategy:An Analysis Based on GTAP Model

作　　者：王原雪[1] 张晓磊[1] 张二震[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2017年第5期29-39,共11页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：江苏省哲学社会科学基金重点委托项目(16WTA003)

摘　　要：利用GTAP模型对"英国脱欧"可能会对"一带一路"战略产生的影响进行了模拟分析。研究发现:"英国脱欧"对"一带一路"战略既有正面影响也有负面影响,并且这些影响随着英国与欧盟之间关税水平的上升而扩大。正面影响来自于"英国脱欧"会使中国和"一带一路"沿线非欧盟国家的经济发展受益,并增强中国与英国、欧盟及其他"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易联系;负面影响则主要是"英国脱欧"会使欧盟和英国的经济恶化,有损于其参与"一带一路"战略的能力。因此,中国既要防范英国和欧盟国家经济下滑给"一带一路"战略带来的不确定性风险,也要把握住"一带一路"沿线其它国家经济发展将从"英国脱欧"中受益的机会,提升对其贸易投资合作的规模和水平,助力其融入"一带一路"战略。This paper studies the impact of Brexit on China＇s ＂One Belt One Road＂ strategy based on the GTAP Model. The results show that Brexit has both positive and negative effects on China＇s ＂One Belt One Road＂ strategy. Brexit would benefit the economy of China and other ＂One Belt One Road＂ members and strengthen the international trade ties between China and the UK, the EU and other members. However, Brexit would also harm the economy of both the UK and the EU and hinder them from participating in the ＂One Belt One Road＂ strategy. Therefore, China should pay close attention to the uncertainty of the economic downturns of the UK and the EU, and take the chance to promote the trade and investment cooperation with other ＂One Belt One Road＂ members.

关 键 词：英国脱欧 “一带一路” 关税壁垒 GTAP模型 数值模拟 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]