基于M-K检验法与R/S法的宜宾市降水量分析  

Analysis of Precipitation in Yibin City Based on M-K Test and R/S Method

作　　者：甄英[1] 杨珊[1] 何静[2] 许斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]内江师范学院地理与资源科学学院,四川内江641112 [2]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《四川师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第3期392-397,共6页Journal of Sichuan Normal University（Natural Science）

基　　金：四川省教育厅自然科学重点基金(16ZB0303和15ZB0271)

摘　　要：依据宜宾市1963—2012年的年均降水量数据,运用Mann-Kendall法、R/S法对宜宾市的年均降水量变化趋势及特征进行分析.结果表明:宜宾市近50年年均降水量总体呈波状下降趋势,并以56.36 mm/10 a的速率递减.进一步对宜宾市的年均降水量进行Mann-Kendall突变分析,得出突变年份为1990年,R/S法分析发现宜宾市近50年年均降水量的Hurst指数为0.698 7,具有持续性特征,由此表明在将来一段时间内,其年均降水量仍具有持续下降趋势.同时诊断发现该序列存在变异点,变异年份在1982年.Based on the average annual precipitation data of Yibin from 1963 to 2012,the change trend and characteristics of annual precipitation in Yibin were analyzed by Mann-Kendall method and R/S method.The results showed that：the average annual precipitation of Yibin city shows wavy downward trend in recent 50 years,and the decreasing rate is 56.36 mm/10a.The annual precipitation was analyzed by the Mann-Kendall mutation method,and the mutation year was 1990.R/S analysis showed that the Hurst index of the average annual precipitation in Yibin city in the past 50 years was about 0.698 7,which showed that the average annual precipitation still had a downward trend in the future.At the same time,it was found that there was a mutation in the sequence,and the mutation was in 1982.

关 键 词：M-K检验法 R/S法 降水量 宜宾 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]