Fisher最优分割法在澄碧河水库汛期分期中的应用  

Application of Fisher Optimal Partition on Flood Season Staging in Chengbihe Reservoir

作　　者：莫崇勋[1,2,3] 王大洋 朱新荣[1,2,3] 阮俞理 莫桂燕 林怡彤 

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广西大学工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室,广西南宁530004 [3]广西大学广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《水力发电》2017年第6期19-22,27,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51569003);广西自然科学基金资助项目(2015GXNSFAA139248);广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室系统性研究项目(2014ZDX01);广西水利厅科技项目(201507);广西高等学校优秀中青年骨干教师培养工程项目(桂教人[2014]39号);广西研究生教育创新计划资助项目(YCSW2017052)

摘　　要：在深入分析澄碧河流域汛期变化特性的基础上,以澄碧河水库为例,选取暴雨日数、旬平均雨量、旬最大3天雨量、旬多年平均入库流量、年最大洪峰出现次数等5个指标,采用Fisher最优分割法进行汛期分期研究,将汛期分为前汛期、主汛期和后汛期3个时期。结果表明,Fisher最优分割法不仅能够考虑多个指标,而且能够有效避免常规方法在阈值选取和最优分期数目确定上存在主观性强的缺点;与之前对澄碧河水库分期的相关结果对比,该方法则更为客观科学,分期结果也更加合理可靠。Taking Chengbihe Reservoir as a study example, five indicators of rainstorm days, ten-day mean rainfall, biggest three days rainfall in a period of ten days, ten-day average inflow for years and times of flood peak every year are introduced to calculate flood season of Chengbihe Reservoir by adopting Fisher optimal partition method based on the analysis of flood season characteristics of Chengbihe Basin. The flood season is divided three periods of pre-flood season, main-flood season and post- flood season. The results show that the Fisher optimal partition method can not only consider multiple indicators, but also can effectively avoid the subjectivity in the selection of threshold and optimal number of dividing. Comparing with the results of other study methods, the Fisher optimal partition method is more objective and scientific and the results are more reasonable and believable.

关 键 词：Fisher最优分割法 汛期分期 澄碧河水库 

分 类 号：TV697.13[水利工程—水利水电工程]