基于气候条件和卫星遥感的逐月牧草产量预测模型研究  

BASED ON THE STUDYING DIGEST ABOUT THE FORECAST MODEL IN CLIMATIC CONDITIONS AND SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING MONTH BY MONTH

作　　者：金显玲 权晨 朱生翠 李国婷 

机构地区：[1]青海省海北牧业气象试验站,青海西海镇810299

出　　处：《青海草业》2017年第2期20-25,共6页Qinghai Prataculture

摘　　要：利用青海省20个生态站2003~2015年生长季牧草产量地面观测资料和EOS/MODIS遥感资料,再结合气象条件按照四种类型草场建立了逐月牧草产量预测模型。结果表明:通过对2015年预测的检验可以看出,高寒草甸、高寒草原、温性草原和其他草原四种草地类型建立的统计模型,预测值与实测值相关系数为0.73,且通过了0.001的显著性检验,能够进行适当的业务应用。所建立的逐月牧草产量的预测模型具有一定的准确率,目前能够为单站的预测提供一定的指导。Taking advantage of the output of pasture from 2003 to 2015.And the remote sensing datum in Qing- hai province.And combining the weather conditions who establish the forecast model about the output of pasture montn by month.The result Shoued： The statistic model about alpine meadow, high-cold steppe,warm steppe and others. From the prediction of inspection in 2015, we can conclude：the correlation index is 0.73 about pre- dicted value and measured value, and it get through the test of significance around 0.001, it can proceed the appropriate business applications. The prediction model is established about the yeild of herbages month by month, that has relative accuracy rate.At present, it can offer some relative guidance for the prediction of single station.

关 键 词：逐月牧草产量 EOS/MODIS NDVI 预测模型 

分 类 号：S812.1[农业科学—草业科学]