长三角部分水源水氯化消毒后卤乙酸形成的多元回归模型研究  

Regression models of HAAs formation upon chlorination of source water collected from Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：宋倩云[1] 宁萍[1] 孙洪杰[1] 林红军[1] 陈建荣[1] 洪华嫦[1] SONG Qianyun;NING Ping;SUN Hongjie;LIN Hongjun;CHEN Jianrong;HONG Huachang(College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua 321004)

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院,金华321004

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2017年第6期2048-2054,共7页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：浙江省属科研院所专项计划项目(No.2015F50014);金华市科技局项目(No.2014A33208);国家自然科学基金(No.21107099);浙江省大学生新苗人才计划(No.2015R404045);国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(No.201510345023)~~

摘　　要：以长三角比较有代表性的3处水源(太湖、钱塘江、金兰水库)为实验对象,研究不同消毒条件下9种卤乙酸(haloacetic acids,HAAs)的形成及其影响因素,并通过建立多元回归模型来评估水源水氯化后HAAs的形成.结果表明:HAAs的形成水平依次为太湖>钱塘江>金兰水库,且均以二卤乙酸(dihaloacetic acid,DHAA)、三卤乙酸(trihaloacetic acid,THAA)为主.二氯乙酸(dichloroacetic acid,DCAA)、总二卤乙酸(ΣDHAA)、HAA5(USEPA规定的5种HAAs)、HAA9(9种HAA的简称)的回归模型具有良好的预测潜力,准确率达83.3%~94.4%,而三氯乙酸(trichloroacetic acid,TCAA)、一溴二氯乙酸(bromodichloroacetic acid,BDCAA)、ΣTHAA(总三卤乙酸)模型的预测准确率较低,只有47.2%~61.1%.根据偏相关系数分析,影响DCAA、ΣDHAA、HAA5的关键的因子是溶解性有机碳;影响TCAA、ΣTHAA、HAA9的关键的因子是投氯量;影响BDCAA形成的最关键因子是溴离子.Present study investigated the formation of 9 haloacetic acids （HAAs） upon chlorination of source water collected from Yangtze River Delta （Tai Lake, Qiantang River and Jinlan Reservoir as representative source water） under different conditions. The key factors influencing the formation of HAAs were identified and the regression models were developed. Results show that the formation of HAAs was dominated by dihaloacetic acid （DHAA） and trihaloacetic acid （THAA）, and the total HAAs level in different locations was ranked as following：Tai Lake 〉 Qiantang River 〉 Jinlan Reservoir. The regression models of dichloroacetic acid （DCAA）, ΣDHAA （sum of DHAA）, HAA5 （regulated by USEPA）, and HAA9 （sum of nine HAAs） show good predicting capability （the accuracy rate reached 83.3%～94.4%）; while the models of trichloroacetic acid （TCAA）, bromodichloroacetic acid （BDCAA）, ΣTHAA （sum of THAA） show low predicting ability （predicting accuracy ranged from 47.2% to 61.1%）. According to the partial correlation coefficients, the key factors influencing the HAAs formation was DOC （key factors for DCAA, ΣDHAA and HAA5）, chlorine dosage （key factors for TCAA、ΣTHAA、AA9） and bromide content （key factors for BDCAA）.

关 键 词：水源水 氯消毒 消毒副产物 卤代乙酸 回归模型 影响因子 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]