人民币汇率与资产价格、外汇储备的关系研究  

A Study on the Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Assets Prices and Its Relationship with Foreign Exchange Reserves

作　　者：张慧莲[1] 

机构地区：[1]外交学院国际经济学院,北京100037

出　　处：《经济纵横》2017年第6期108-116,共9页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"外部冲击和结构性转换下的中高速增长和中高端发展研究"(编号:15ZDC010)的成果

摘　　要：近期,关于人民币汇率有两个重要问题,一是人民币汇率与资产价格的关系;二是如何权衡"保汇率"还是"保外储"。从宏观资产配置角度分析,人民币汇率和资产价格走势应视货币条件和相对其他资产的市场条件而定;"保汇率"和"保房价"并非非此即彼的关系,它们间可能存在多种组合。从"三元悖论"和"特里芬难题"两个角度分析,"保汇率"还是"保外储"应采用"中间解",并在短期内相机抉择,通过外汇管制、宏观审慎政策和国际货币政策协调等打破人民币越贬值资本越外逃的负反馈环。从长期看,人民币国际化的发展有利于缓解人民币汇率的"特里芬难题",但短期内应使储备资产尽量多元化,并进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制。We explored two recently hot topics about RMB exchange rate. One is the relationship between RMB exchange rate and the assets prices, the other is about how to trade - off between RMB exchange rate stability and foreign exchange reserves stability. From the perspective of macro assets allocation, the trend of RMB exchange rate movement and assets prices depend on overall monetary conditions and market conditions. We can get various possible combinations of RMB exchange rate and real estate prices change. In terms of the trade - off between RMB exchange rate stability and foreign exchange reserves stability, we use the frameworks of the Impossible Trinity and Triffin Dilemma and found a compromise solution between them. However, in the short run, we should make choices at optimal discretion to disrupt the negative feedback loop between RMB depreciation and capital outflow by control of foreign exchange, macro - prudential assessment and internation- al monetary policy coordination. In the long run, the development of RMB internationalization will relieve the stress of RMB exchange rate. Recently, we should pay more attention on diversification of official reserve as- sets and improvement of formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate.

关 键 词：外汇储备 人民币 资产价格 特里芬难题 三元悖论 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]