2017-2018年中国宏观经济分析与预测  

China's Economic Outlook in 2016-2017:Forecast and Analysis

作　　者："中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组 李文溥 龚敏[1] 卢盛荣[1] 李静[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2017年第3期27-34,共8页Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“经济持续健康发展与收入倍增计划的实现路径研究”(13&ZD029);国家社科基金重大项目“需求结构转换背景下提高消费对经济增长贡献研究”(15ZDC011);国家社科基金一般项目“新常态下资源再配置与效率增进研究”(15BJL008);教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“中国经济潜在增速的测算与展望研究”(15JZD016);国家自科基金青年项目“中国城市规模与城市居民工资不平等研究”(71503222);中央高校基本业务科研经费资助项目“中国实践背景现代宏观经济理论与政策”(20720151037)

摘　　要："中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组于2017年2月22日发布了中国季度宏观经济模型第二十二次预测。预测显示,中国经济增速将继续减速,但增速下降的幅度将逐步收窄;经济有望维持一个温和稳定的通货膨胀率水平。预计2017年GDP全年增速为6.64%,CPI上涨2.15%;2018年,GDP增长率将下探至6.59%,CPI增速略降至2.03%。模拟研究发现,消费结构转型升级能够促进人力资本积累,从而对经济增长产生积极影响;基于混合所有制改革与去杠杆协同发力的供给侧政策,能够显著改善投资结构、提升投资效率,在带来较显著经济增长效应的同时降低投资占GDP的比重。因此,必须坚定不移地坚持扩大开放,稳定民营企业家信心;将供给侧结构性改革的侧重点逐步转向降成本、补短板;全面落实《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》,致力于现代国家治理体系与治理能力的建设,是降成本、补制度短板的根本之策;充分调动全体人民群众、基层单位、各级地方政府、各级部门的改革热情,是落实全面深化改革的根本。The project team of the ＂China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model＂ （CQMM） released its 22nd forecast of the CQMM in Beijing on February 22, 2017. China＇s growth is forecast to continue its downward trend under the pressure of shrinking investment, but the risk of full deflation is low. The GDP growth rate is predicted to be 6.64% in 2017and 6. 59% in 2018, and CPI is expected to be 2.15% and 2.03% in the next two years. The project team simulated the macro- economic effects of transformation and upgrading of consumption structure, mixed ownership reform and deleveraging, and found that the transformation and upgrade of the consumption structure could promote the accumulation of human capital, thus exerting a positive impact on economic growth. In addition, the project team simulated the macroeconomic effects of the mixed ownership reform and ＂deleveraging＂, and concluded that the supply-side policy based on the mixed ownership reform could significantly improve the investment structure and investment efficiency, and bring significant effect of econom- ic growth to reduce the proportion of investment in GDP. Furthermore, the project team suggested that China＇s government must unswervingly stick to the opening-up policy and improve the confidence of private entrepreneurs. The focus of the supply-side structural reform has gradually shifted to the reduction of costs to eliminate the deficiency. The full implemen- tation of the Decisions of the CPC Central Committee Concerning Certain Major Issues in the Comprehensive Deepening of Reforms, and the establishment of a modern state governance system and governance capacity, are fundamental policies for reducing costs and the eliminating the deficiency of the system. Likewise, inspiring enthusiasm for the reforms among the public, grassroots organizations, local governments and government agencies at all levels is fundamental to the comprehen- sive deepening of the reforms.

关 键 词：中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM) 宏观经济预测 供给侧改革 

分 类 号：F105[经济管理—世界经济]