车辆发动机可靠性寿命试验数据的预测方法  

FORECASTING METHOD OF VEHICLE ENGINE RELIABILITY LIFE TEST DATA

作　　者：谭冠军[1] 王加阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学机电工程学院,长沙410083 [2]中南大学信息科学与工程学院,长沙410083

出　　处：《机械强度》2017年第3期697-701,共5页Journal of Mechanical Strength

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61173052)资助~~

摘　　要：针对车辆发动机可靠性寿命试验时间长的问题,提出采用灰色系统预测理论对车辆发动机可靠性寿命试验数据进行预测,建立了发动机可靠性寿命试验数据的无偏灰色预测GM(1,1)幂模型,通过采用试验数据序列与预测数据序列总体分布函数相等性检验方法确认无偏灰色预测GM(1,1)幂模型用于发动机可靠性寿命试验数据预测是可行的。算例结果表明,采用灰色理论预测方法预测发动机可靠性寿命试验数据并进行相关的分布函数参数估计有较高的精度,可达到缩短发动机可靠性寿命试验时间和节约试验费用目的。Aiming at the problem of long time of vehicle engine reliability life test, the grey system forecasting theory is used to forecast vehicle engine reliability life test data, and the unbiased grey GM （1,1） power model for engine reliability life test data is proposed. By examining the overall distribution function equality of test data sequence and forecasted data sequence, it is confirmed that the proposed unbiased grey GM （ 1,1 ） power model can be effectively used for the prediction of engine reliability life test data. The example results show that the grey theory forecasting method for the prediction of engine reliability life test data has high precision, and distribution function parameters of test data sequence and forecasted data sequence are very close. Using the proposed method can shorten engine reliability life test time and save test cost.

关 键 词：发动机 可靠性 寿命试验数据 灰色预测方法 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学] TP202.1[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]