人口年龄结构、社会养老保险与通货膨胀——基于动态面板GMM模型的实证分析  

Population Mix,Social Security and Inflation: a Study Based on Panel Data from 31 Provinces and Cities

作　　者：杨波[1] 杨扬[1] 王益迪 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《东南大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2017年第3期121-129,共9页Journal of Southeast University(Philosophy and Social Science)

基　　金：中国保险学会教保人身保险高校课题研究基金(jiaobao2016-04)成果之一

摘　　要：在经济结构转型的过程中,人口年龄结构变化和社会养老保险普及均会对作为重要宏观经济变量之一的通货膨胀产生一定的影响。本文通过对相关文献梳理与理论分析,基于差分GMM模型,利用中国31个省市2000—2015年省级面板数据从人口年龄结构、社会养老保险、宏观经济变量三方面对通货膨胀的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,少儿抚养比与通货膨胀存在正相关关系,而老年抚养比与通货膨胀存在显著的负相关关系;社会养老保险对通货膨胀既有推动的一面,也有抑制的一面。因此,通过对上述因素的控制,可以提高货币政策控制物价的有效性与针对性,促进社会经济持续健康发展。In economic transformation,any change in population mix and social security would exert influence on inflation.Based on differential GMM model,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of panel data from 2000-2015 in 31 provinces in terms of population mix,social security and macroeconomic variables.The results show that the correlation between child-age dependency ratio and inflation is positive while that between old-age dependency ratio and inflation is the opposite,and that the social security has both positive and negative effects on inflation.Therefore,a control of these factors helps command the market price and promote the healthy development of society and economy.

关 键 词：人口年龄结构 社会养老保险 通货膨胀 差分GMM模型 人口抚养比 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F822.5F842.67