经济发展方式转变是否降低了中国的碳排放强度?——基于IO-SDA模型的分析  

Whether the Economic Development Pattern Change Reduce the Carbon Intensity of China?: Analysis Based on I-O SDA Model

作　　者：邓荣荣[1] 陈鸣[1] 

机构地区：[1]南华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《科学决策》2017年第5期40-63,共24页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"中国低碳城市试点的政策绩效评价及优化研究"(15CJY037)

摘　　要：传统的粗放型经济发展方式在给我国带来持续经济增长的同时,也使中国面临日益严峻的环境污染问题。基于1992-2012年中国进口(非竞争型)可比价投入产出表,从经济发展方式的三大内涵出发,运用IO-SDA模型构建全面反映经济发展方式的9个变量,对经济发展方式各构成因素的变化对碳排放强度变化的影响效应进行实证检验,结果表明,研究期内经济发展方式的变化显著降低了中国的碳排放强度,主要原因在于能源强度的降低,其次为能源结构的变化及二、三产业内部结构的优化,但中间投入结构、最终需求结构、制造业结构、三次产业结构、进口率等因素的变化均不利于中国碳排放强度的降低。在此基础上有针对性地提出进一步转变经济发展方式以实现碳减排目标的政策建议。Based on the non-competitive （import） constant price input-output tables of China dur- ing 1992-2012, this paper use IO-SDA model to build nine variables which reflect the economic development pattern and test the effect of changes of components of economic development pattern on carbon emission intensity, results showed that the economic development pattem change has significantty reduced the carbon emission intensity in China, mainly due to the reduction of energy intensity, followed by the change of energy structure and the optimization of the internal structure of the secondary and tertiary industnes. But the change of such factors as final demand structure, manufacturing structure, the structure of three industry, and import rate had an inhibitory effect on the reduction of China＇s carbon emission intensity. On this basis, this paper then put forward the further policy recommendations about how to change the economic development pattem in order to achieve carbon reduction targets.

关 键 词：经济发展方式 转变 碳排放强度 IO-SDA模型 

分 类 号：F120.3[经济管理—世界经济]