FY-2G地表温度反演产品改变模式初值对一次台风暴雨模拟的影响  

Influence of Initial Condition Adjustment Using FY-2G Satellite Surface Temperature Retrieval Product on Typhoon Heavy Rain Simulation

作　　者：刘武[1,2] 李耀东[2] 史小康[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军理工大学气象海洋学院,南京211100 [2]北京航空气象研究所,北京100085

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2017年第1期26-34,共9页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41175046);国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U1533131)资助

摘　　要：为探讨地表温度初始场在台风暴雨模拟中的重要性,以2015年第13号台风"苏迪罗"为例,分别用FY-2G卫星反演的陆表温度、海表温度产品替换NCEP资料初始场,进行数值模拟试验。对模拟结果进行分量级降水TS评分和预报正确率检验,并对比分析了各试验方案2 m温度场、感热通量和潜热通量场、900 h Pa流场和850 h Pa垂直速度场间的差异。结果表明:使用FY-2G卫星反演的陆、海表温度产品作模式初始场均能不同程度地改善降水模拟效果,但改善程度随时间降低,24 h后其改善作用已较小;陆表温度试验对小雨和中雨量级的预报质量均有提高,而海表温度试验仅提高了小雨量级的预报质量。进一步分析表明,陆表温度试验主要通过改善陆表温度初始场影响感热通量和潜热通量的分布,进而减小台风东北部低层温度正异常,使该区域气旋性环流减弱、垂直速度减小,有效抑制了虚假对流出现,最终达到改善降水预报质量的效果;海表温度试验原理与陆表温度试验类似,但对降水预报质量改善不明显,仅在广东南部沿海地区降水模拟效果较好。To investigate the importance of the initial surface temperature in the typhoon heavy rain simulation, taking typhoon No. 13 ＂Soudelor＂ in 2015 as a case, we use the land surface temperature （LST） , sea surface temperature （SST） products derived from FY - 2G satellite to replace the initial field from NCEP data of the numerical simulation. Then we calculate the precipitation TS score, forecasts accuracy and analyze the 2 m temperature field, sensible and latent heat flux field, flow field at 900 hPa and vertical velocity field at 850 hPa. The results show that using the land （sea） surface temperature derived products as initial field do improve the effect of precipitation simulation, but the effect of improvement decreases with time, after 24 hours the effect is not significant. The LST test improves the forecast quality of light rain and moderate rain, while the SST test only improves the forecast quality of light rain. The LST test mainly affects the distribution of sensible and latent heat flux by improving the initial field of land surface temperature, then the positive anomalies of the temperature field on lower level of northeast typhoon is reduced, the cyclonic circulation become weaker, vertical speed is reduced, the false convection is restrained, and ultimately, improves the quality of precipitation forecasts. The SST test is similar to the LST test, though its improvement of precipitation is not significant, except for the south Guangdong, where the precipitation simulation is better.

关 键 词：FY-2G卫星 地表温度 数值模拟 初始场 台风暴雨 

分 类 号：P407[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P435