河南省冰雹短期预报方法研究  

Research of Hails Short-term Forecast Method in Henan Province

作　　者：丁建芳[1] 杨敏[1] 刘磊 

机构地区：[1]河南省人工影响天气中心,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象台,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2017年第1期47-53,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：河南省重点科技攻关计划项目(132102310071)资助

摘　　要：利用1999—2010年共45个冰雹日个例(全省同一天有≥2站出现冰雹),分析冰雹日高低空、地面形势特征和降雹落区,发现降雹与500 h Pa环流形势关系密切。因此依据冰雹日08时500 h Pa高空形势及对流层低层的特点,将河南省冰雹天气形势划分为西北气流型、东北冷涡型、华北冷涡型及低槽型4个天气类型,并依据不同的天气类型给出可能发生冰雹的大致落区。由于冰雹的形成除有利的天气形势背景条件外,还必须具备低层水汽辐合、大气不稳定层结、触发机制3个基本条件,因此本文进一步对河南省冰雹日当日500 h Pa低槽低涡位置、地面冷锋位置、地面温度、露点温度、探空资料等进行分月统计,获得冰雹预报的判别指标。基于以上条件,引进中国科学院大气物理研究所研发的完全弹性三维冰雹云模式,依据河南省内及周边的共7个探空站资料制作河南省的区域客观预报。通过4个月的业务应用,发现利用micaps实时资料并结合三维冰雹云模式来预报河南省的冰雹天气,空报率较高,漏报率较低,提高了冰雹的预报时效,为重点防雹作业区争取到了充分的作业准备时间。Using the 45 hail days （the number of stations occurred hail more than 2 on the same day） from 1999 to 2010,the upper and lower altitude, ground situation characteristics and hail falling area are analyzed,the result shows hail is close with 500 hPa circulation situation. So according to 500 hPa weather situation and the lower troposphere characteristics, four weather patterns of hail in Henan province is mainly studied, which are northwest air current type, northeast cold vortex type, North China cold vortex type and trough type. After that, hail falling areas are summarized. Under favorable weather background conditions, the formation of hail must have water vapor convergence in the lower level, atmospheric unsta- ble stratification and trigger mechanism. Therefore,low trough and low vortex position of 500 hPa on hail day, the ground cold front position,surface temperature,dew-point temperature and sounding data are statisticed in accordance with the month,in order to get the discriminant index of hail forecast. Considering the constraints, with the three dimensional hail cloud model which developed by Institute of Atmospheric Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences and 7 sounding stations inside and outside the province,regional hail forecast in Henan province is made. Through the business applications of 4 months,the vacancy rate of hail forecast is higher and the rate of missing report is lower with this method. This method improves the hail forecast period, strives to achieve sufficiently prepare time to hail suppression work.

关 键 词：冰雹 冰雹天气形势 降雹落区 三维冰雹云模式 冰雹预报 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]