1986年~2016年伊朗人口空间分布格局演变特征  

Evolution of spatial pattern of province-level population distribution in Iran during 1986-2016

作　　者：代欢欢[1] 陈俊华[1] 方尹 DAI Huan-huan CHEN Jun-hua FANG Yin(School of Geographical Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学伊朗研究中心,重庆400715

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2017年第3期29-38,共10页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金西部项目"伊朗核危机的演变趋势与中国能源安全及对策研究"(10XGJ0008);高校基本科研项目"伊朗核危机的演变趋势与中国的对策响应"(SWU0909619)

摘　　要：作为中东大国之一,亦是中国战略合作伙伴的伊朗是"一带一路"中"新丝绸之路"经济带上的重要交通枢纽,科学合理测度其人口空间分布格局演变特征可提升对伊朗国内发展态势的认知,对加强中伊政治经济合作具有现实意义,也可丰富世界地理研究领域中东区域的典型案例。运用人口分布不均衡指数、重心分布、密度等指标,结合探索性空间数据分析和偏移-分享分析法等研判1986年~2016年伊朗人口分布空间格局演变特征,结果表明:伊朗人口空间分布极不均衡,人口主要集中在中央高原西北部、里海沿岸平原;人口密度整体上呈西北高东南低的特征,人口分布与自然地理环境条件、经济发展水平呈显著正相关;伊朗的人口流动以邻域地区和城市之间的流动为主,主要流向经济发达的北部和西北地区,这也与人口重心在西北地区的空间路径依赖惯性趋势吻合;伊朗人口分布的空间格局演化分异呈显著空间自相关性,人口密度较高和较低的区域均出现空间集聚特征,密度高高集聚区位于北部、西北部山地和德黑兰周边与中央高原交界处,且逐渐向东南方向延伸;密度低低集聚区主要分布于东部山地和西南地区,且变化甚微。Iran has strategic importance to China in the Middle East.It is ofpractical significance to conduct a scientific measurement of the evolution ofpopulation spatial distribution in order to get a clearer picture of lran＇s e-conomic and political development. The data comes from the ＂Iran StatisticalYearbook＂ and the world city population website. The research selects fourtime points-1986, 1996, 2006 and 2016, using the population distribution im-balance index, population gravity center distribution, population density, andother indicators to explain the characteristics of the evolution of Iran’ spopulation distribution from 1986 to 2016. The results show that Iran’ s popu-lation is mainly concentrated in the northwest of the Central Plateau and theplains of Caspian Sea coast. The east and southwest mountain region’ s popula-tion densities are low. The population shift of Iran’ s northwest always leadsto the population of another area. The tracking of the population gravity cen-ter movement failed to break through the space path dependence inertia trend.The Iranian population tends to be dispersed before it grows more concentrat-ed. High concentration areas are mainly distributed in Iran＇s north, thenorthwest mountains, and the peripheral of Tehran and borders Central Plateauwhich gradually extend from the area to the southeast. The low concentratedareas are mainly distributed in the east and the southwest and changes a lit-tle. Iran’ s population is moving towards cities.

关 键 词：人口 分布格局 探索性空间数据分析 偏移-分享分析 伊朗 

分 类 号：C924.373[社会学—人口学]