基于Miller-Orr模型的地方国库库底目标余额预测实证研究  

An empirical research on the prediction of the bottom target balance of the local treasury based on the Miller-Orr model

作　　者：张蔚虹[1] 宋盼[1] 王鑫[1] 吕润吉 

机构地区：[1]西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710071 [2]南京市财政局,江苏南京210005

出　　处：《西安电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第1期31-38,共8页Journal of Xidian University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目(14XJC630006)

摘　　要：运用Holt-Winter季节乘积模型,利用2011-2015年NJ市国库库底余额数据,估算2016年国库存款余额数据,并进行误差分析;运用Miller-Orr模型,测算2016年NJ市国库库底目标余额。结果表明,2016年NJ市国库存款余额的预测值与实际值的趋势基本保持一致;测算的国库库底余额1787086万元、最佳区间[1752997,1855264],为NJ市国库库底资金的运作提供量化依据。对解决国库现金闲置,提高地方国库资金收益提供决策参考。This paper estimates the treasury balance data in 2016 and conducts the error analysis through the data of the balance of bottom local treasury in NJ city in 2011 - 2015 by exploiting the Holt-Winter seasonal product model. Using the Miller-Orr model, the balance of bottom local treasury in NJ city in 2016 is calculated. Results show that the trend of the predicted values of the treasury deposit balance of NJ city in 2016 is basically consistent with the actual values. The estimated balance of bottom local treasury is about 17.87086 billion yuan and the optimal range is [1752997, 1855264], which provide a quantitative basis for the operation of the NJ local treasury. It also provides basis for decision-making and reference for solving the idle treasury cash and improvement of the local treasury income.

关 键 词：地方国库 国库现金 库底目标余额管理 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]