改造瑞利模型在沁水煤层气产量预测中的应用  

Application of Modified Rayleigh Model in Prediction of CBM Production in Qinshui

作　　者：刘刚[1] 孙建博[1] 尹锦涛 Liu Gang Sun Jianbo Yin Jintao(Shanxi Yanchang Petroleum （ Group ） Co. Ltd., Xi＇ an, Shanxi 710075, China)

机构地区：[1]陕西延长石油(集团)有限责任公司,陕西西安710075

出　　处：《特种油气藏》2017年第2期145-148,共4页Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs

基　　金：陕西省科技统筹创新工程项目"延长石油陆相页岩气成藏机理及资源潜力评价"(2012KTZB03-03-01-01)

摘　　要：针对瑞利模型在沁水煤层气产量预测过程中产量时间比的自然对数与时间平方值之间线性关系较差的问题,利用时间的幂指数替换时间平方值,得到改造瑞利模型,并对该模型在沁水煤层气产量预测中的应用进行了分析。研究结果表明:应用改造瑞利模型能够较好地拟合出沁水煤层气产量的整体特征,尤其在产量递减阶段拟合精度更高。预测沁水地区煤层气井未来1 a的产量,年递减率为21.3%~27.5%,平均为23.8%,符合沁水地区煤层气井产量初期递减规律。统计表明,沁水地区应用改造模型的幂指数m分布于0.15~0.45区间内,平均约为0.25,该值可作为沁水煤层气产量预测模型参数m的参考值。研究成果对沁水盆地煤层气产量预测有一定的指导意义。With regard to the natural logarithm of production/time ratios and the poor linear relationship among time squared values in CBM production forecast for Qinshui by using the Rayleigh model, power exponent of time has been used to replace time squared value to generate the modified Rayleigh model. Performances of the modified model in CBM production forecast for Qinshui Area have been reviewed and analyzed. Research results show the modified Rayleigh model can satisfactorily reflect overall features of CBM production in Qinshui Area. Fitting accu- racies are especially high in stages with production declines. By using the modified model, CBM production of Qin- shui in the coming one year has been predicted to determine annual reduction rates of 21.3% - 27.5%, or 23.8% on average. Prediction results coincided well with early-stage production reduction patterns of CBM producers in the Qinshui Area. Statistics show the power exponents, m, of the Qinshui Area determined hy using modified model distributed at 0. 15 - 0. 45 with average value of 0. 25. The value may serve as reference for parameter m in CBM production forecast model for the Qinshui Area. Relevant research results may provide valuable guidance for forecast of CBM production in the Qinshui Basin.

关 键 词：沁水盆地 煤层气 产量预测 瑞利模型 幂指数 

分 类 号：TE349[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]