口岸炭疽事件危害范围的模拟研究  

Simulation Research on Anthrax's Diffusion at Frontier Ports

作　　者：李林中[1] 陈峰[1] 吴尔翔[1] 唐晓宇[1] 崔萍 陆永昌[3] Li Linzhong Chen Feng Wu Erxiang Tang Xiaoyu Cui Ping Lu Yongchang(Nantong Entry-exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau （Nantong, Jiangsu, 226004 Nantong Guo Xin Environmental Science Co.Ltd （Nantong, Jiangsu, 226007 Jiangsu Entry-exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau （Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210007)

机构地区：[1]南通出入境检验检疫局,江苏南通226004 [2]南通国信环境科技有限公司,江苏南通226007 [3]江苏出入境检验检疫局,江苏南京210007

出　　处：《口岸卫生控制》2017年第2期7-11,共5页Port Health Control

基　　金：2015KJ40基金支持

摘　　要：目的通过计算机模拟技术研究口岸生物恐怖事件中的炭疽因子扩散模拟和污染区域的划分,为突发公共卫生事件应急处置提供决策支持。方法运用高斯扩散模型对口岸中生物因子的扩散进行计算机模拟,结合典型的生物战剂炭疽的感染浓度对扩散后气溶胶的浓度和分布进行污染区域的划分。结果通过模拟运算,得到了炭疽在口岸的扩散规律以及浓度分布并划分出污染区域。结论利用高斯扩散模型可以精确模拟出口岸生物因子的扩散并划分污染区域,为口岸突发公共卫生事件应急响应提供决策支持。Objective The computer simulation technology was used to simulate diffusion of anthrax and divi- sion of contaminated areas in the hioterrorism incident at ports, so as to provide decision support for public health emergencies. Methods The Gaussian diffusion model was used to simulate the diffusion of biological a- gents at ports, and concentration and distribution of the aerosol were divided for contaminated areas according to the infection concentration of the typical biological agent anthrax. Results Through the computational simula- tion, the diffusion of anthrax at frontier ports was revealed, and different contaminated areas were divided ac- cording to the probability of infection. Conclusion The Gaussian diffusion model can be used to simulate the diffusion of biological agents and to divide the contaminated areas to provide the decision-making support for re- sponse of public health emergencies.

关 键 词：生物恐怖 口岸 炭疽 高斯模型 扩散模拟 

分 类 号：R185.3[医药卫生—流行病学]