考虑风电的省级电网多类市场购电风险研究  

Research on Multi-Market Power Purchasing Risk of Provincial Grid Considering Wind Power

作　　者：方日升[1] FANG Risheng(State Grid Fujian Electric Power Company Limited, Fuzhou 350003, Fujian, Chin)

机构地区：[1]国网福建省电力有限公司,福建福州350003

出　　处：《电网与清洁能源》2017年第4期113-118,124,共7页Power System and Clean Energy

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金项目(2013J01176)~~

摘　　要：电力市场环境下,风电和负荷的不确定性给省级电网的购电决策造成了重大的影响。考虑负荷电量、风电购电量和日前现货市场电价的不确定性,以期望购电成本最小和遭受损失的风险最小为目标,建立期望购电成本-损失风险模型。采用CVa R度量损失的风险,并通过多目标粒子群优化算法和模糊集理论求得最优折中解。通过算例计算,分析了风电对省级电网的购电成本、损失风险和各市场购电量分配的影响,以及风电电价对省级电网购电的影响;表明了该模型的可行性,为省级电网购电决策提供了参考,实现了期望购电成本和风险的最小化。In the electricity market environment, the uncertainty of wind power and load has significant impacts on the purchase decision of the provincial power grid. In this paper an expected electricity purchasing cost-loss risk model is built with the goal of minimum expected purchase electricity cost and minimum risk of suffering losses considering the uncertainty of load quantity, wind power purchasing power and the electrovalence of day-ahead spot market. The condition value at risk （CVaR） is used to measure the risk of loss, and the optimal compromise solution is obtained through the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm and the fuzzy set theory. The effects of the wind power on the provincial grid＇ s purchase electricity cost, risk of loss and purchase electricity distribution in each market and the effect of wind power price on the provincial power purchase are analyzed with examples. The analysis result has verified feasibility of the model, suggesting that the model provides some references on the decision of power purchasing for the provincial power grid and helps to realize the minimum expected purchase electricity cost and risk.

关 键 词：风电并网 购电风险 省级电网 条件风险价值 多目标粒子群优化算法 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]