养老地产PPP项目特许期决策  

Decision-making of the Concession Period for Endowment Real Estate PPP Project

作　　者：冯雪东[1] 郑生钦[1] 王德芳[1] 马光德 FENG Xue-dong ZHENG Sheng-qin WANG De-fang MA Guang-de(School of management, Shandong Jianzhu University, Jinan 250101, China)

机构地区：[1]山东建筑大学管理工程学院,山东济南250101

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2017年第3期131-136,共6页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

摘　　要：随着PPP模式在养老服务项目中被提出,养老地产PPP项目的特许期决策问题受到社会资本的广泛关注。但由于养老地产项目经营周期长、项目投资回报率低、风险大等特点,特许期的长短则对项目未来的运营收益有直接影响。为降低项目特许期的长短对未来收益产生的影响,通过分析养老地产PPP项目特许期影响因素,建立了政府担保项目最低收益条件下的养老地产PPP项目特许期决策模型,运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法确定出合理的特许期区间,并以淄博市拟建的生态养老中心PPP项目案例数据验证了方法的可行性,以期为政府和社会资本投资养老地产PPP项目提供决策参考。With the PPP model put forward in the pension services, pension property of the PPP project concession period decision problem attracted extensive attention of social capital. But as a result of endowment real estate project operation cycle is long, low project return on investment, great riskand other characteristics, the length of the concession period will have a direct impact on future operating earnings of the project. In order to reduce the length of the concession period of the project to impact of future earnings, through the analysis of concession period influence factor for endowment real estate PPP project, this paper set up a decision-making of the concession period for endowment real estate PPP project under government guarantees a minimum income conditions, using Monte Carlo simulation method to determine the reasonable concession period interval, and verify the feasibility of the method by the PPP project case data in the Zibo ecological pension center, so as to government pension and social capital investment real estate the PPP project to provide decision-making reference.

关 键 词：养老地产 PPP 特许期 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]