中国如何成为世界科技创新强国(2015—2050)  

How Does China Become World Sci-tech Innovation Power (2015–2050)

作　　者：胡鞍钢[1,2] 刘生龙[1,2,3] 任皓[1,2] Hu Angang Liu Shenglong Ren Hao(School of Public Policy ＆ Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Institute of Contemporary China Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Institute of Quantitative ＆ Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [2]清华大学国情研究院,北京100084 [3]中国社会科学院数量经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2017年第5期474-482,共9页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：中宣部全国哲学社科规划办高端智库建设项目(201550102 98)

摘　　要：建设世界科技创新强国是我国社会主义现代化建设的重要组成部分,文章从2050年中国现代化目标、世界科技创新强国目标和制造强国目标出发,通过全球增长模型,对我国2015—2050年发展状况进行长期预测,包括GDP、人均GDP、固定资本存量、研发资本存量、人力资本存量、劳动生产率、制造业增加值、高技术产业增加值等数据及其与美国的比值,表明2050年我国在完成建设社会主义现代化国家目标的同时,还可完成世界科技创新强国与世界制造强国建设。文章还从经济强国、制造强国与科技强国三者的相互关系出发,提出"三位一体"的强国方略集,认为只有经济、产业、科技三大体系融为一体,才能形成相互需求、相互借力、相互支撑、相互带动的良性循环,并在此基础上提出世界科技创新强国建设的三阶段。May 30, 2016, on the ＂Sci-tech Three Conferences＂ （National Conference on Science and Technology Innovation, the Conference of the Academicians, and the 9th National Congress of China Association for Science and Technology）, President Xi Jinping first suggested that our targets for national sci-tech development is that by the time when the People＇s Republic of China has been established for 100 years, China shall become a world sci-tech innovation power, which is also an important constitution of China＇s socialist modernization. Starting from China＇s Modernization Goals by 2050, and the goals of becoming a world sci-tech innovation power and a manufacturing power, by means of analyzing global growth model, this study predicts the long term development from 2015 and 2050, including indexes such as national GDP, GDP per capita, fixed capital stocks, R＆D capital stocks, human capital stocks, labor productivity, manufactory industry added-value, and high-tech industry added-value, and compares them with those of the United States as well. Conclusion shows that by 2050 when China has finished the socialist modernization, China will also emerge as a world sci-tech innovation power and world manufactory power. From the perspectives of interrelations among economic power, manufactory power, and sci-tech power, we propose a three in one strategy for strengthening the country, argue that only the integration of economy, industry, and science and technology could contribute a benign cycle of mutual demands, mutual engines, mutual supports, and mutual promotions among them, based on which this articles also anticipates three stages for China becoming a world sci-tech power.

关 键 词：中国社会主义现代化 世界科技创新强国 世界制造强国 三位一体 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济]