我国鸡蛋产业链市场价格传递机制探析  

Analysis on the price transmission mechanism of egg industry chain market in China

作　　者：赵丽娟[1] ZHAO Lijuan(Xinjiang agricultural vocational and technical college, Changji 831100, China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业职业技术学院,新疆昌吉831100

出　　处：《黑龙江畜牧兽医（下半月）》2017年第5期1-4,285,共5页

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-42-G24)

摘　　要：2012年以来,我国鸡蛋市场价格的过度波动引起社会的关注。为解析鸡蛋产业链的价格传导机制,笔者拟采用2011年1月份—2015年12月份的鸡蛋零售价及批发价、商品蛋用雏鸡价、蛋鸡配合饲料价等官方统计数据,运用协整检验、向量误差修正(VEC)模型和脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法进行分析。结果表明:鸡蛋零售价和批发价间的关系最为密切;产业链各环节之间存在稳定的长期关系;鸡蛋零售价对其他价格的传导存在时滞;上游鸡蛋零售价的波动引致中下游鸡蛋批发价、配合饲料价、雏鸡价的波动;配合饲料价、雏鸡价对鸡蛋零售价、批发价的传导顺畅;鸡蛋零售价对批发价、雏鸡价变动的贡献最大;雏鸡价对配合饲料价、鸡蛋零售价波动的贡献也最大。The excessive price fluctuation of egg market in China caused the wide social concern since 2012. To analyze the price transmission mechanism of eggs industry chain,the official statistics,including the eggs retail price,wholesale price,commodity price with chicks and the laying hens feed price from January 2011 to December 2015,were analyzed by the method of co-integration test,vector error correction（ VEC） model,Impulse Response Function and the variance decomposition. The results showed that the egg wholesale and retail price had the closest relationship. There was a long-term stable relationship between the various sectors of the industrial chain. Also,the price transmission of egg retail price had a time lag on other products’ price. Upstream egg retail price fluctuations caused the same price fluctuation of wholesale and feed price in middle and lower reaches. The transmission of the compound feed price and chick price on the egg retail and wholesale price was smooth. The retail price contributed the most to the fluctuation of egg wholesale price and chick price. While the chick price had the most contribute to the feed and egg retail price.

关 键 词：市场价格 鸡蛋产业链 价格传递 协整检验 向量误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F307.34[经济管理—产业经济]